Friday 15th December 2006

It's been a very good day for the Purple Sports Trader with just one losing trade from the twelve that I executed. I started the day with a very small profit in the 12:15 at Uttoxeter. In the 12:45 again at Uttoxeter I layed Mandatum for £45 @ 5.10 at about half distance when he wasn't travelling very well. I then backed him for £10 @ 6.0 and a further £15 @ 7.50 to partially offset my liability and with Mandatum still not looking like a winner I kept the rest of my lay to leave me with a profit of £20. Next race for me was the 13:10 at Gowran Park and here I backed Jack Ingham for £67 @ 2.00 whilst being pursued by the eventual runner-up Brave Right. I then layed off £54 @ 1.80 and  £13 @ 1.70 to cover my liability and when Jack Ingham won left me with a profit of £14.

In the 13:50 at Uttoxeter I layed the very short odds on favourite, Opera de Coeur, just as he blundered at the 5th fence for £653 @ 1.53. He then seemed to improve a little and with such a large liability I  backed him back for £500 @ 1.73 and a further £20 @ 1.90 to give me profit no matter the result. Later as it looked like the horse would be pulled up I layed him again for £5 @ 15.00 and again for £20 @ 19.00, to net me a very decent £172 profit. I then had two very small profitable trades before my only loser of the day at Uttoxeter in the 14:25 where I managed to back the eventual runner-up Lord Lorcan for £15 @ 1.12 and lay the winner Negus de Beaumont for £2 @ 2.00. This race only cost me £17 which was a result considering I got everything wrong. I recovered well by getting everything right in the next race that I traded, the 14:35 at Ascot. I like races like this with a smallish field and good quality horses where all would be trying their best and anyone could win. This always improves liquidity and allows for a good chance to trade. I started by laying the short priced favourite Natal for £200 @ 2.00 and then backed £160 @ 2.90 which had already put me in a win/win situation. I later backed Briareus for 333 @ 1.80 and put up a lay to cover this back @ 1.06. I only got £33 matched before I cancelled. I also, some how, got £9 matched @ 5.00 over the last fence to net me a very good £342 profit. I then had two more small profitable trades before I had to stop to cook the evening meal for my family. So I ended the racing day with a profit of £538.

Tonight's live televised football match was the Championship clash between Luton and Southend. The stats pointed to an over 2.5 goals match so I took a cautious approach to my under 2.5 goals trading. I started pre kick off with a back of the unders of £100 @ 1.99. At this level of liability I feel very relaxed and therefore waited for the price to drop to 1.80 before laying back £50. I then decided to back again for £36 @ 1.75. I kept going in to back and out to lay this market and had a total of 22 trades, which, by half time had netted me £59 on the match. This is not my normal style of trading, but I was conscious of the fact that my football has let me down this last few days and the fact that I had had a good day to date, so I didn't want to mess things up by being too greedy. I therefore had a fairly limited liability at any time and even then only for very short periods of time. I then looked at the other markets on this match and had a few very quick backs then lays of the 0-0 correct score market.  Here again I had 8 trades in total, to a maximum liability of £260 but for only a minute at a time at most. This trading gave me another £37 profit so in total I made £95 profit on the match and this left me with a very good £633 profit for the day.

I am often asked why, when I believe a match will have more than 2.5 goals, do I still trade the under 2.5 goals market. The reason is that you will lose less often doing this. If I had backed the over 2.5 goals market I would never have had the chance to trade out of this position, as we know the price is going to go one way until a goal is scored. So you can call it a pure punt on goals being scored to back the over 2.5 goals market. When you trade the way I do almost every time you can trade your way out of the position with a profit or break even. You will still, as I have twice this last week, lose on occasions, but the odds are in your favour to get out with a profit.

One other thing to mention tonight is that I know many traders will have been caught out by the failure of the Betfair site tonight just before half time in the match. I hope not too many readers of this blog where involved. If you where why don't you trade a match or two on Betdaq? You will find liquidity is very similar on most matches and prices are also very similar.

Comments

[Alastair]

sureley for games you expect to be over 2.5 goals you could just lay the over market and back it at a later stage. As there are only 2 outcomes for the 2.5 goals this is the same as backing and then laying the under market is it not?

I did this on the luton game on betfair for a profit of 50 but unfortunelty the game was suspended before i could green up :-(, was going to wait for a goal to do this.

That was the first time i tried trading the 2.5 goals market so annoyed with not actually making any money. on the bright side i didnt loose any!

[Ray]

Hi Alastair,
It is not quite the same as with tonights game you could not have got out of a back on the overs without losing money as no goal was scored. I probably did not explain properly but if you are on the unders and a goal comes time will often save you as the price will start to fall soon after the market has been reformed. On the overs time is against you from the outset, and only a goal will let you out of your position. Good luck with your trading in the future.
Ray

[humble]

A good day for you today Ray i work fri sat so wasnt able to be inolved but sounds like you had a great day.

[Ray]

Cheers Humble, I hope you make plenty today.
Ray

[Prekladatel]

Betdaq never goes down, Ray?

[Ray]

Hi Prekladatel,
Betdaq has had problems on occassions but they are very few and far between. If there is a problem like the one suffered by Betfair last night then they would take a more sensible approach and would be more likely to void all in running bets on the match. I can not remember a case where the site was down for that long. I would always recommend that you have accounts with more than one exchange so you have the option to trade out of a potential losing position on another site. Good Luck
Ray

[stroller]

Hi Ray

Can i start by saying what a fantastic read your blog is i look at it every day keep the good work up it must be time consuming.

Say for instance a match a match was 1.77 for under 2.5 goals after how many minutes would it take for the price to drop to say 1.60 if no goals were scored?

I have a few other questions that you may be able to help me with is there any chance when you get time to contact me via e-mail as i have tried to find your e-mail address but without success look forward to hearing from you.

many thanks

Stroller

[Ray]

Hi Stroller,
Thanks very much for such positive feedback. There are no hard and fast rules about exactly what the price should be at any given time as it does partly depned on how the game is being played. But with a starting price of 1.77 I would expect the price to be at 1.60 with 10 - 12 minutes on the clock. Look for a quicker fall as 20 minutes approaches. You can get my email by clicking the email me link just under my photograph. Good Luck
Ray

[stroller]

Hi Ray,

I must be going blind it is as clear as day it says e-mail me, can you check you inbox later i hope you dont mind me sending you a private e-mail.

Cheers

Stroller