Wednesday 27th December 2006

It is a lot easier writing this blog when things have gone well, but today they have not. I got off to a flier due to the last match in the PDC World Darts Championship last night between Caves and Askew. I had already finished my blog last night and decided to watch the darts. I then decided to have a little trade. I started trading in the final set and backed Askew for £388 @ 1.16. I then laid off @ 1.12. Next I backed Askew again for £500 @ 1.18 only to see him lose a leg and the odds drifted right out to 1.90, where I decided to back him again for £644 @ the 1.90. Askew had by now regained his aim and the odds started to drop down again so I laid £500 @ 1.60 and a further £ 250 @ 1.53 and £458 @ 1.19, to leave me with a profit on the match of £184.

Todays UK horse racing was a very slow affair for me. I just could not get matched. It was one of those days. Early on I had missed, by probably a millisecond, a profit of £1800 but a miss is as good as a mile. In total today I traded in 15 races and all but two were profitable. The losing races cost me just over £3 in total. The winners all gave me less than £10, except one, the 14:55 at Wetherby, where I backed  Fearless Foursome for £500 @ 1.01 when safely over the final fence and well in the lead. I also laid Been Here Before for £16 @ 7.20, to net me a total profit in the race of £21. So I finished my race day with a profit of £37.

Now for the football. Do I have To. I had a disaster for two reasons. One, I was extremely unlucky, twice, and two, I did not stick to my game plan. I had analysed the match and decided that there would not be too many goals. So I backed the under 2.5 goals market for £200 @ 1.75 pre kick off and then a further £105 @ 1.68 soon after the kick off. I had laid off £130 @ 1.60 before the first goal was scored.  So  had a liability of £175 at this stage. Once the market had been reformed I backed the unders for £320 @ 2.60, this was my first deviation from my plan as I should only have gone in for £175. I hadn't even started to lay off when the second goal went in. So now I had a liability of £500.

When the market had been reformed I tried to get matched around the 7.00 - 8.00 level but couldn't do so. I eventually got matched with £160 @ 5.75. So I now had a liability of £660 at a break even trade price of around 3.25, which was the price just before the third goal was scored on the stroke of half time. I had traded out of £30 so I was left nursing a hefty loss of £630. This is where my luck first gave out, if the goal had not been scored I would have traded most of my liability through the half time interval.

I now looked at the under 3.5 goal market and backed it for £95 @ an average price of 2.70 and laid off the £95 @ 1.36 which would have given me a profit of £130 if the 4th goal didn't come. In the last three minutes of the game I also saw  £112 @ 1.70, £114 @ 1.50 and £116 @ 1.30 available on the no 4th goal market so I took all this as well. I immediately set up a lay for this £342 @ 1.10 on the under 3.5 goal market as there was no liquidity on the no 4th goal market and as both markets mean the same. Well you no the rest , a very poor bit of defending in the 90 seconds before the final whistle cost me my liability. This is where my luck gave out again as I would say if that goal had been defended better the lay I had put up would have been taken within a few seconds. I would have clawed back the £342 from my 4th goal trade less the lay of £34 and £125 from my under 3.5 goal trade so I would have been down an acceptable £200. Instead I now have a loss on the match of £972.  Well that's how it goes some days. I am lucky to be in the position that I am, to be able to accept this loss as a part of my trading. I hope some of the readers of this blog will learn from my mistakes. I have ended the day with a total loss of £751.

Comments

[Robin Sydney]

Ray
I have been reading your unders trading strategy and decided to put it into practice and this was my second game. What a disaster it was!!!
Actually I blame myself as I had an uneasy feeling about the game before it started. On the face of it it looked like an unders game for sure but the new manager syndrome combined with 2 poor defenses made me uneasy.
I actually traded out just before the first goal as I felt that both defenses looked shaky - particularly Charlton as they kept on giving away free kicks in dangerous positions and looked vulnerable to balls into the box. I then got back in after the goal even whilst thinking I probably shouldn't and that was my big mistake. I didn't trust my gut instinct. Anyway I ended up losing 200 pounds but although I too suffered from the same luck as you with the 3rd goal i really blame myself mainly for the loss.
How do you approach re-couping that loss? Do you trade more aggressively or do you just stick to your normal staking approach etc?
Anyway Merry Christmas, Happy New Year and keep the blog going it's great.

Robin

[A.S.A]

Hi Ray!

Like Robin, I also had a feeling that this match would end over, since always new managers have an immediate impact on team morale (Remind West Ham v Manchester and the miracle happened there? ) and all the players want to show their ablities to the new boss and therefore are extremely motivated and in such situations everything is possible.Not that the first match under new coach must ends over, but that you can find trends in the match which do not match with the statistical records of the team in previous matches, which on this speciall case, all pointed to an under match.Therefore I was goinig to leave my comment here and ask you wether you're goinig to stick to your usual sterategy for this match or not.Honestly speaking, I wanted even to inform you about the possibilites on an open match, but as I'm just 24 years old and I knew that you're a much much more experienced and talented trader, I changed my mind and didn't do so.

Anyway, when the match actually began, I noticed that the price of under was swiftly dropping, from 1.75 to 1.56 when the Fulham's first goal scored.(At betfair). So I was sure that you've laid off and have exited from the market with a very nice profit, since there is 19 ticks difference between 1.75 and 1.56.

I myself, suffered from a loss in this match.I laid the draw @ 3.45 with EUR 100 before the kick-off and was hoping that after a goal from any side and drifting of the draw odds, I'll be able to back the draw odds to guarantee a profit whatever the result.To my surprise, when Fulham scored in 13th min, the odds of draw drifted too little ( about 3.8 I think) and when I was happy to take the current odds, Charlton leveled the score and left me with a poor odds of 3.1, which I didn't even think to take it and suffer from a little loss, to avoid a bitter one.

Anyway, It's a risky business after all dear friend.Hope to see you recovering from this vicious loss and keep blogging!

[Ray]

Hi Robin,
These things do happen from time to time and this is the reason I always try to advise you to be comfortable with yor staking. I am not a tipster I just tell others how I trade. It has worked well for me over the years and I will continue to do exactly the same in the future. By that I mean I will continue with the same strategy and staking. I hope you make plenty over the next few days. Good Luck
Ray

[Ray]

Hi A.S.A.
I am not too old or too experienced to listen to others, we are always learning in this business so don't think I am unaproachable. I could have traded this match better but then in hind sight we would all be expert traders. I did what I did and I will just have to make sure that I make plenty over the next few days. But I will keep my staking and strategy just the same as before, as something will come along to make up for this loss. Good Luck with your trading.
Ray

[Nathan]

Hi Ray
These things always happen after a good period don't they! but then tend to even themselves out over the course of time. Perhaps subconsciously we become over confident or maybe we just set ourselves higher standards as we improve, no wonder everyone has a psychologist these days!!
Nathan.

[Robin]

Thanks Ray

Your caution re staking and comfort is very clear in all your reports and I know I only have myself to blame re the loss.

I will let you know how I get on over the next few days.

Robin

[Ray]

Hi Nathan,
I do think that we get a false sense of security when things have been going well. That is one of the main reasons for keeping staking at similar levels. It's as easy to chase after a winning streak as it is after losing one. Good Luck
Ray

[Ray]

Robin,
Thanks and good luck.

[Adam]

I have to commend you Ray, it must be very hard to post when you have made a loss, but all credit to you.

I am sure you will make the loss back by the end of the week and I hope you do.

Good luck and I hope people do read this and learn from it.

[Shambolic]

Hey up Ray,

I too made a balls of last nights game. I've always tended to trade in a similar way to you, and it seems last nights game was just the sort of match that comes up every now and again. Not TOO often, mind. I wouldn't worry Robin, it always seems to happen you work on a strategy that is indeed a long term earner but the first time you put it into practice, you happen on a 'freak' occurence. Biggest loss of the month and set me back a touch. But the New Year and a new month beckon, with the slate having been wiped clean. I'm to take a slightly more dedicated approach come January, been a bit here and there this month getting used to the change in lifestyle, with it being my first month full-time. In hindsight, maybe would have been better to work another month, get Xmas and New Year out the way, and start then. But that's aftertiming....

Anyway, best to all for the New Year and here's to a better year next year. I can't wait!

Shambo

[Ray]

Hi Adam,
Thanks for your kind words, I will make it back very shortly. Good Luck.
Ray

[Ray]

Hi Shambolic,
I always find the holiday season puts me off my stride a bit. I like a steady routine with no distractions that always happen this time of year. Good Luck with your venture into full time trading, I hope it goes very well for you.
Ray

[Shambolic]

Cheers Ray,

Blogs like this keep me sane, it's good to read about others winning when I'm having an off-period, and also about others having a bad time of it when all is good. It just keeps it in mind that things can get better again very quickly, and that I'm not invincible just cos I've had a few good days.

[humble]

Hi ray a a real tester for you yesterday which i am 100% sure you will recover from,i have been laying about 2 years and trading for a few months and the amount of time i have kicked myself for not sticking to my plan.we do certainly need a longer term view and you guys seem to have it there is a saying " Fear of losing stops you winning" which i always used to suffer from.if i had a big loss i wouldnt dare do my next lays "fear of losing" only to see them all lose lol i do seem to have conquered this now "i hope" and try to look past just one day.This thread has helped me do that and i log on religiosly every day to see what i can learn.Shambolic Good luck with your new challenge i am sure you will do fine please keep us informed i really can see now why so many people dont make a living fro, i as its so easy to get disheartened in this game but i am starting to understand losses are part of the game.Thanks

[mick]

I have several sayings above my computer. One is "With hindsight we could all have twenty twenty vision but life isnt like that. Not real life. It is forged in the agony of the moment." Not Shakespeare but very true about the decisions we make. Most of our decisions will be right but occasionally things go belly up. Thats life and trading is no different. Without the lows we cannot enjoy the highs.
Good luck today
Mick

[Ray]

Hi Shambolic, Humble and Mick,
Sorry I took so long to reply but I had to attend a family party this afternoon. Thanks, all of you for your support and please all keep in touch through thick and thin. Good Luck
Ray

[Rob]

Hi Ray
Had a very similar experience with the Charlton game, lumped on the draw ht and then got caught with the comedy defending..traded like a demon on the under 3.5 to leave a profit of 300 only for the goal to come before I could level out....to give me a profit of 0.01 and an overall loss of 499.99 on the game :-(
Things can only get better :-)

[Ray]

Hi Rob,
Good Luck today. Lets hope for better trading days.
Ray