After such a good day yesterday I suppose I was due a bad one. Things started OK with small backs on Duncliff in the 12:30 @ Ascot, on Halcon Genelardais in the 14:20 @ Haydock and on the superb College Ace in the 14:30 @ Huntingdon. I then started to get things wrong and in the 15:55 @ Haydock I backed Nevertika to see it headed near the line. At this stage I was still just in front and decided to back Mystery Pips in the 17:40 @ Wolverhampton in the final furlong to see it come in an eventual 3rd in a very close finish with the first three all within a short head. I did have a couple more small wins at Wolverhampton to again get me just ahead.
Then the football - I did as normal in that I backed the unders market in the Sevilla / Valencia, although I did expect a few goals in the match. I backed £500 @ 1.65 just at kick off and then set about gradually greening up. I was almost all green when the first goal came so I backed the unders in the re-formed market @ 2.20 and then started laying back. I was just about out and with half time approaching I backed another £320 @ 1.64. The price remained pretty static for an unusually long time as this was a very open match and with Valencia down to 10 men there where lots of chances for goals. The third goal came and left me with a loss of £488. I then entered the under 3.5 goals market and backed the unders for £1000 @ 1.72 with 19 mins left before the final whistle. Within 5 mins I started to lay back and eventually layed around £500 at 1.42 and the rest to average 1.35, if only I had waited a few more seconds I would probably not have layed that last £500 as there was a serious injury to a player and the game was already in the last 3/4 mins. I managed a profit of £345 on this market to partly offset my loss on the under 2.5 goals market. So I ended a very disappointing day with a loss of £131. I do attribute some of todays bad trading to my frame of mind, which has not been great today because of a couple of personal problems. I find you really have to feel right to do this job properly and that if you have anything to worry about you either do not concentrate properly on the job in hand or worse if you are in the slightest angry about something your judgement and logic can be all wrong.
At the moment Betdaq do not have a under/over market on 4.5 goals as Betfair do. But I have an interesting theory if they did. We all know exactly what to expect the price to do in this unders/overs market, in that the price will gradually keep dropping until it reaches 1.01 within the last 15 -20 mins of the match if no goal is scored. If a goal is scored it will start off higher then drop at a faster rate until the end of the game or another goal is scored. Its all very predictable. So knowing this you can keep going back into the market after every goal as eventually the final whistle will go and you will win. The only possible downside would be if a goal was scored in the last minute of the game and there was not therefore enough time to form a new market.
A great source of statistics on football from all the major European leagues is SoccerSTATS.com they even give predictions as to whether the game should be an under or over 2.5 goals. You can find just about every conceivable stat you could ever want at this site.
hi,super blog by the way.interesting you mention about how our feelings affect how we peform.i have studied this for quite a while and its all down to the law of attraction.some may say airy fairy but it was;nt so long ago the world was thought to be flat.an absolute superb,inspiring motivational film/documentary in relation to this can be seen at www.thesecret.tv/
its costs 5 bucks or so but is well worth it.it starts off a bit funny but stay with it if you decide to watch it..
Posted by: martin | 11/19/2006 at 12:10 PM