I had a good day to round off another profitable week. I started in the 12:30 at Newbury where I backed Mick Fitzgerald's mount, Mountain Approach, soon after his mistake 3 fences out and just as he challenged for the lead @ 2.00 for £150. I did consider laying off but with Mick looking pretty confident I just sat on the bet and made £150. In the 13:00 at Newbury I backed Hot 'n' Holly for £42 @ 2.00 as he was duelling with Irish Raptor and again I did not lay off but must admit I thought I had lost this wager on more than one occasion. My next real gain was in the 14:50 at Fontwell where I backed English Jim @ 4.00 for £40 then again for £50 @ 3.00, this time I did lay all off @ prices between 2.00 and 3.20 to net me a profit of £76. I missed a lot of today's racing due to having to take my daughter to her friends Birthday party at 2:00 and then again to pick her up at 4:00. So I only traded 6 races and won on all of them. This also meant that I missed the start of the Man. Utd V Chelsea match.
I waited for the first goal to go in on the match to get what I perceive as a value price on the under 2.5 goal market. I got on the unders @ 1.76 for £55 and layed off @ 1.51 within 7 or 8 mins. I then went back in after the equalising goal @ 1.55 for £66 and @ 1.53 for £170 and again layed all off within a few minutes again @ 1.30 to 1.44 to net me £25. Not a bad result as I was making the evening meal at the same time hence my in and out approach to this match. I then settled down to the Athletic Bilbao V Sevilla match and decided to wait a while as this was predicted to be an over 2.5 goal match, so I waited and assessed the way the match was going. I got in after the first goal @ 2.70 for £184 and had just put up a lay when the second very early goal went in. I then backed unders again @ 6.70 to 7.25 for £90 which averaged my price to around 3.90. I then had a fairly anxious wait for the price to fall as this was a very open game where it looked like a goal could come at anytime and, yes, I probably should not have entered this market. However I persevered and started to lay off @ 4.45 in small amounts all the way down to 2.11 where I had now got to £40 profit on overs and £140 profit on unders when the 3rd goal came and left me with a £40 profit. I also had a small margin win on Sevilla to win the match. So I finished the day with no losing trades and a profit of £360 which gives me a weeks total of +£1180.
Hey Ray,
I just read your blog. Good stuff. I will keep on reading it. Keep up the good work!
Posted by: Kris | 11/27/2006 at 02:03 PM
Hi Kriss, I hope you find it usefull and good luck with your trading.
Ray
Posted by: Ray | 11/27/2006 at 02:30 PM
Nice work, do you just trade the over/under 2.5 or do you do the others also.
Posted by: bw | 11/27/2006 at 09:06 PM
Hi bw, I mainly trade the under 2.5 market but do sometimes trade the under 3.5 and at other times on the match result. The easiest to gauge where the market should be at any given time is the under 2.5 market. I have just had a great result on the Burton V Exeter match again trading the under 2.5 and all greened up with 10 mins to go.
Ray
Posted by: Ray | 11/27/2006 at 09:36 PM
Hi Ray, enjoy reading the blog. I'd like to ask you where you feel your edge comes from on the unders/overs. You make it sound real easy - stats? ability to "read" the game? Good luck with it all.
Posted by: Prekladatel | 11/28/2006 at 01:06 PM
Hi Prekladatel,
I think that you can only put it down to experience. I have followed these markets for more than 6 years and for the past year fulltime. think you can trade this particular market without knowing too much about the game as it is a matter of time over odds. The longer that a goal is not scored the lower the odds will go. Just give it a go with small stakes as I did to start with and as your confidence grows raise your stakes. Good Luck
Ray
Posted by: Ray | 11/28/2006 at 01:11 PM