Wednesday 29th November 2006

Well, where do I start - I had one of those days where I started very well then made a  basic mistake that cost me £300, followed that up with a bad trade that cost me another £150 but ended up in profit. In footballing terms if you play bad and still win they say it's the sign of a Champion, I hope they are right.

My first trade was in the 12:10 at Catterick where I backed Joan's Girl for £150 @ 2.21 in the run in where she appeared to be trying to run out to the left but just went over to the rail and ran on well to net me an early profit of £181. My next decent gain was in the 13:05 at Plumpton where I backed Marcel @ 2.00,2.21 and 2.50 and layed all off @ 1.20 to net a trading profit of £32. In the 14:00 at Ayr, my local track, I backed Wild Cane Ridge for £100 @ 1.72 to net a further £72. Now for my mistake in the 14:20 at Catterick I had backed Flake for £40 @ 2.25 and was worried about Moorlaw's effort so I had a back covered ready to hit the button for £284 @ 1.30, then I saw more money for the taking on Flake so I went and hit the back button for Flake and got the bet but, I hadn't cancelled my back on Moorlaw so I just cost myself £278 on the race. That hurts a lot more than a genuine trading loss but is one of the mistakes that is very easy to do especially  in the heat of the moment when you really have to keep your wits about you. In the very next race at Ayr I backed Percussionist for £200 @ 1.90 whilst Harmony Brig seemed to be under a lot of pressure to keep itself in the race but some how Tony Dobbin managed to get the horse to make a renewed effort to come through and win,. I did manage to back Harmony Brig between 1.30 and 1.80 to partially offset my loss and I ended with a loss of £154. In the 14:40 at Plumpton I backed Pro Dancer for £70 @ 4.24 and layed it back for £95 @ 3.50 to net a profit of £25. I traded 18 races in total and ended with a loss £120.

There where 5 premiership matches to choose from but after looking at the odds on offer and the stats for these games I went for the Bolton V Chelsea match. I concluded that this would be a low scoring game and backed the under 2.5 goals before kick off for £350 @ 1.64. I traded slightly differently in this match to my normal style and held out to just before half time before laying off where I layed £160 @ 1.22 to 1.35. Then in the fourth! minute, of the three minutes added on to the 45, Chelsea scored. During half time I put up £1000 to back the under 2.5 goals @ 1.58 and had £690 of it taken before the start of the second half. Within ten minutes I started laying off my liability in £100 chunks from 1.52 down to 1.35 and then in £50 amounts to start greening up between 1.25 and 1.02 to leave myself a profit on the match of £260. Last season Chelsea were a banker for under 2.5 goals, that is not the case this year but when they are playing a team next to them in the league and are worried about the gap at the top of the league opening up they do play a very tight game where they give few chances to the opposition but also do not create that many chances. So I ended the day with a respectable £140 profit and consider myself pretty fortunate.

Comments

[Sloba]

Hi ! Do you want to exchange the links? Answer me
here , please.

[Ray]

Hi Sloba, Yes I will add your link later today. I have just had a quick look at your site and find it very interesting.
Ray http://thesportstrader.lastminuteliving.com/

[rob]

Hello there, I am curious about your trading strategy on the unders\overs market. What is your reasoning behind laying the unders after a goal has been scored?

[Ray]

Hi Rob, I know it sounds strange but it is a fact that people tend to over-react to a goal and you can get on at odds higher than fair value. In the Newcastle match tonight I have been waiting for a goal just to let me get back into the market.
Ray

[Ray]

Rob, sorry I have just read your comment again. I back the unders after a goal not lay.
Ray

[Rob]

Ray, actually you answered the question I meant to ask... If that makes sense!

I have really enjoyed your blog and hope you keep it going. I appreciate it must be time consuming.

Rob

[Ray]

Hi Rob,
Pleased I could help. The worse thing about the blog is that I know there is so much more that can be done with it but I am not that good at the technical side of blogs. The writing is done as a means of winding down at the end of the day and it is useful just to look back at what I have done.
Good Luck
Ray