Friday 29th December 2006

Back to basics for the Sports Trader today. No big liabilities just steady trading to get me back on track. I attended a funeral this morning of one of my neighbours and it's at moments like this that you get a chance to really sort out life's priorities. As you all know by now I am a fifty year old man that still feels like I'm in my thirties. I am recently separated from my wife who has been suffering form manic depression for twenty years and who was secretly taking vast quantities of alcohol and drugs, both legal and illegal. I have been left looking after my three young children and also have 3 older ones from my previous marriage who still need my support from time to time.

So my main priority in life is to ensure all six children are supported to the best of my ability and that means I need to make regular profits and cut out as many losing days as possible. In reality I normally have 1 losing day for every seven to eight winning days, so my task is to ensure the loss on losing days is of the same magnitude, or lower, than my profit on winning days and then my future as a trader will be secure. The very nature of trading means that losing trades are quite often much larger than winning ones.  This means that my proportion of winning to losing trades must also be high.

I have had a very good year but it is essential that from here on each year has to be as good if not better. I hope that the readers of this blog will now realise that I am just a typical bloke with a real life and not doing this as a hobby. I do not have an income from any other source. I started out as a part time trader and quickly realised that I could make a good living doing a job that I really love.  I know at this time of year many people look to their future and make New Years resolutions, I would encourage you to try trading, to supplement your income for at least 12 months before taking the plunge and going full time. If after this period you have proven to yourself that you can make this pay, then consider going full time.

I started todays trading with the 12:30 at Newbury where I backed Fair Along for £100 @ 1.50 with about two furlongs to go. This gave me a good start to the day with a £50 profit. Next was the 12:40 at Taunton and here I backed Little Rort for £120 @ 1.80 at the two furlong marker and laid back @ 1.20 in the final furlong to net a further £72 profit.

The next race I traded was the 13:10 at Limerick and here I backed Shuil A Hocht on the run in for £67 @ 1.30 to give me a £20 profit. I then had a more small profitable trade in the 13:15 at Taunton before the 12:55 at Leopardstown. Here I backed Pedrobob for £40 @ 2.25 and laid off £24 @ 1.70 and a further £16 @ 1.25 to net me £29 profit.

I had two more small profitable trades before the 14:20 at Taunton where I backed Pepporoni Pete for £125 @ 1.60 when making good headway through the field and looking likely to go on to win. Unfortunately he soon emptied out and left me with no chance of laying off. I therefore lost £125 on this race. I traded a further 7 races, all to small stakes and broke even on them. So I finished my racing day with a total profit of £57.

I missed the start of tonight's football match between Birmingham and Luton. The match looked like  a high scoring match according to the SoccerStats site. I did trade very tentatively on the under 2.5 goal market after the first goal had been scored and was in a clear position when the second goal was scored. During the half time interval I backed the unders for £300 @ 4.30 and quickly laid back at the start of the second half at prices from 3.90 down to 3.35. I then started to green up @ 3.00 and 2.60 before the third goal was scored and finished with a £35 profit. So I finished my day with an overall profit of £92.

Comments

[peter]

Ray,
I am a teacher so only trade part time. I really enjoy it but I am still learning the art from experts such as yourself and John whose blog I also read regularly.

Your first couple of parargarphs had a sobering effect on me. My wife has suffered from mild manic depression for about 12 years. Fortunately for all concerned it is under control as a result of lithium tablets and no one would guess there has even been a problem. I admire your vision and determination and hats off to you that you are so successful given the distractions of looking after a family with young children.
At times like this you take stock and think about the year ahead. I too am trying to be more disciplined and my goal is to lose less 'foolish' money in 2007.
I look forward to reading your blog and thank you for giving up the time to report on such a regular basis. Every good wish for a prosperous new year.
I caught one of your threads on the STW forum today. I shall be curious to see if the software alters your methodology in the next few months.
Peter

[The Gambler]

Cheers Ray and Peter. Good Luck to you and Peter and all. I knew there was a story there Ray. All the best to you all. I hope you and everyone makes lots of money next year, but not from me. Happy New Year, Ray Peter, and all. Saddam has just been executed by the way. :-(.

[ASA]

Hi Ray.Nice to hear that your boy is better now.About last night's match, I also had predicted a high scoring match, but not a 2-2 result! I thought that that this match could have ended 3-0, 3-1 or 4-1, since the home side were really better then their rivals.Once again a surprise if you ask me!

Anyway, I'm happy to see that you've recouped a part of your loss and hope that this trend continues.

For tonight, I think Tottenham v liverpool is a very promissing match to imply your technique.Isn't it?

[Ray]

Hi Peter,
Manic Depression,( Bipolar Disorder), is the hidden disease which is much more prevalant than most people think. Stephen Fry did a brilliant documentary on the BBC a few months ago showing the effects and how people cope with this condition. This is a link to the programme: http://www.bbc.co.uk/health/tv_and_radio/secretlife_documentary.shtml. I partly blame this documentary for my wife leaving us as she saw her great hero Robbie Williams has the condition and she thought if it is ok for him to get drunk and take drugs then it was ok for her. It is also interesting that in the documentary every single person interviewed with the condition said they did not want to get better because they loved the highs that they experience, and most could not live within a normal relationship. My wife would not take Lithium. She would often pretend to be very depressed when at her doctors or psychiatrist so her medication would be changed to make her feel higher. Good luck with your family and your trading.
Ray

[Ray]

The Gambler,
Thanks John and the very best of luck to you.
Ray

[Ray]

Hi ASA,
Thanks for your comments. As you know I do not give out tips or recommendations before the event as I like to see how things unfold during the event. With football I do need to look at all the stats and make up my own my mind on what is likely to happen. I have just had a quick look at the Tottenham Liverpool match and although I will probably trade this one I think that quite a few goals could be scored. If you look at the following page on SoccerStats, http://www.soccerstats.com/pmatch.asp?league=england&match=1 they are predicting an under 2.5 goal match but if you then look at Totenhams last 4 home matches, they have scored an average of 3.0 goals / match and Liverpool have, in their last 4 matches, conceeded an average of 1.75 goals / match. Good Luck which ever match you trade.
Ray

[Ray]

Asa,
Sorry I meant to say that Liverpool have scored an average of 1.75 goals away / match.
Ray

[Ray]

Peter,
The link I put up does not seem to work so please try this one it does: http://www.bbc.co.uk/health/tv_and_radio/secretlife_index.shtml
Ray

[Phil]

Hello Ray
Great reading your blog
Sorry to hear about all the things going on
But glad to see some green days

On a lighter note I am a massive Lpool fan
Who cares how many goals
0-1 at Tottenham
"Rafa...Rafael...Rafa...Rafael...Rafael Benitez!!'

Singing Assassin

[Ray]

Hi Phil,
Thanks for your comments as always. I have just been catching up with your blog. It's good to see that you are back in front. Well done Liverpool, as you can see above I thought there would be more goals and in fact the Liverpool match was the only Premiership match to end under 2.5 goals, so well done to ASA for picking this one out.
Ray

[humble]

Ray a very honest post and very inspiring that you have coped with all that you have to go on and actually become a full time trader, talk about overcoming adversaties.good to see you back in profit today well done once again.can i ask when you first started what size bank did you thought you needed to make a living with and was it mainly small trades practising.thanks

[Ray]

Hi Humble,
Thank you for your appreciation of my story. When I started out part time I put £200 in to my account and I have never put any more in. A year ago when I decided to go full time I had £10K in my account. Not that I ever used it all at any stage but with that amount of money in the account I felt secure. Remember that due to my wife's ill health I was forced to give up my business and thought I would give full time trading a go so I could earn a living and be there for the kids. . Also I was making an average of around £300 / week part time. So there where many factors that I had to consider at that time. Everybody will have a different set of circumstances to consider before turning pro. I know of people that say a bank of £2000 is more than enough to earn a regular £500 / week. Good Luck.
Ray