The Sports Trader

Friday 22nd December 2006

It was a case of 'never mind the quantity feel the quality' today. I had a much shorter day than normal  as my three and a half year old twins had their Christmas party, at their nursery school. This meant I had to miss the early racing. So the first race that I traded was the 14:30 at Hereford. I put up a back on The local for £5 @ 50.00 and got matched. I then backed Amour Multiple for £63 @ 1.80 just after he had hit the final hurdle. This left me with a profit of £45.

My next trade was in the 15:10 at Lingfield where I backed Eva Soneva So Fast for £57 @ 1.50 in the final 100 yds and thought I had won, but the photo showed my horse had been beaten by a short head on the line, so I lost my £57.

I then had my eldest son come round to visit me so I had no trades for an hour and a half. My next race was the 16:50 at Wolverhampton and here I had a really brilliant trade. I managed to back Elhareer for £1000 @ 2.65 whilst well in the lead, coming into the straight and immediately put up a lay of £1000 @ 1.50. I tried to cancel my lay soon after but it had already been matched to leave me with a profit in this race of £1150. That was the last racing trade of the day and I ended with a profit of £1138 and still no commission to be paid due to the Betdaq offer of 0% commission on all in running racing.

Tonight's football match was the game between Cyrstal Palace and Sunderland. I missed the start. I backed the under 2.5 goals market for £432 @ 1.67 with around 10 minutes on the clock. I then proceeded to lay in £50 amounts from 1.61 down to 1.40 and then in £25 amounts down to 1.30. When the goal was scored in the 41st minute I had laid back all but £50, so I was looking good. I decided to wait before backing the unders again mainly because the price offered was not too good. At half time I put up a back of £200 @ 1.58 and got it matched. I then, and still at half time, laid back the £200 @ 1.55. I decided to hold on before laying any more until the price was down to 1.25 and here I started laying in £10 amounts down to 1.07. I didn't see the need to green up as only one goal had been scored and we were now in the 80th minute. If a second goal had been scored I would almost always green up, just in case a third goes in to leave no profit. In the 90th minute I also had a very small back on the under 1.5 goal market and in total I finished the match with a profit of £88. This left me in profit to the tune of £1226 for the day.

As you all know I do not give tips as almost every thing I do is trading in running. But the one bit of advise I would give to horse racing enthusiasts is to take a look at The Betting School. Its is a club where the owners test all types of betting products including, systems, trading software, strategies and tipsters. The club then report back to members on these products. To let you get a flavour of what The Betting School can do for you they have agreed to give all my readers a free report that tells you everything that you need to know about the latest software solutions. The club will also send you videos of software in action, along with trading strategies as well as beginner videos for getting the most out of the Racing Post website and the betting exchanges. To access this valuable resource just click on the links.

Thursday 21st December 2006

A pretty decent day for the Sports Trader today but it shouldn't have been. The first race for me was the 12:30 at Southwell, and it, along with all the rest at both Southwell and Wolverhampton were run in thick fog. It's at times like these that I wish I was using the Sports Trading Workstation along with the brilliant invention known as IRIS. Just imagine being able to see exactly where each horse was and knowing which was accelerating the fastest and most likely to win. With IRIS, even in the thick fog, that is exactly what you could see. In this first race the favourite was Stanley George with a starting price of 1.50. I backed him, in running, when clearly in the lead for £186 @ 2.00 then laid it all off @ 1.55, to give me the perfect start to the day and a profit of £83. I then had a small profitable trade in the 12:40 at Ludlow.

My next race was back in the fog at Southwell in the 13:00. I made a mistake here. As I had got matched at far too big odds in the previous race on this track I put up a back of the for £50 @ 3.00 on the favourite, Rafferty, in the hope someone would take it. Then in my eagerness, peering through the fog to see the position of the horses, I  tried to back the leader Shrine Mountain and forgot all about my back that I had set up. By the time I did realise and hit the cancel all button I was too late so I lost my £50.

In the 13:10 at Ludlow I started with a small lay of £5 @ 5.00 on the favourite, Kaldouas. I then backed Art Virginia for £135 @ 1.83 when going into the lead with about 4 furlongs left to race. I put up a lay of £60 @ 1.10 on the run in and got matched, to leave me with a profit of £111. Next for me was the 13:20 at Exeter where I backed the favourite, Never So Blue, for £33 @ 1.40 whilst in the lead about two hurdles out, only to see him fade badly on the flat to cost me £33. I then had 5 more small winning trades.

My last race of the day was the 14:50 at Exeter where I took £43 @ 5.00 on the favourite, Zanzibar Boy when staying on well and in the lead. Later, in the final few yards I backed another £46 @ 1.07 to leave me with a profit of £175. Now you see why I said that I shouldn't have had such a good day. To get 4/1 about a 2/1 favourite whilst well in the lead is obviously extremely fortunate and almost certainly a mistake by someone. A lot of mistakes are made in the frantic trading that goes on, I should know I have made plenty, but it is part of the game and that is why you need absolute and total concentration at all times. So I had finished my race trading day with a profit of £307.

Tonight's football match was the Spanish clash between Barcelona and Atletico Madrid at the Camp Nou, where Barcelona were clear favourites, and a high scoring match was expected. I had seen the odds for the under 2.5 goals earlier in the evening at around 1.95. By the time I had got the kids in bed etc there was only 10 minutes to go before kick off and the odds had dropped to 1.86, which I considered to be a little on the low side, so I decided to wait for the match to start before getting involved. I waited until 10 minutes were on the clock and backed £250 @ 1.85, which I considered better value than 1.86 before kick off. I was still of the view that goals would come and started laying off quite quickly. I laid in £50 amounts from 1.78 down to 1.60 and was all clear of liability by the time the first goal came with 41 minutes on the clock.  I had a few phone calls to make and decided not to re-enter the market after the goal had been scored. Later in the match and in fact with 1 minute of the 3 injury time minutes already played I backed the unders for £154 @ 1.13. Within 60 seconds I laid back £170 @ 1.05 and 1.06 to leave me with a profit on the match of £43. So I finished a decent day with a profit of £350.

Wednesday 20th December 2006

I started the day all wrong with a couple of losing trades, which contrary to what most people would think, put me in a hesitant frame of mind. I know there is a lot of talk about chasing losses but when you do this for a living, trying to make steady gains everyday, chasing is normally the last thing that I want to do. My main objective when this has happened is not to make the day any worse, so caution is the watch word, and it normally means that I will miss profitable trades that I would otherwise have taken.

My first trade of the day was in the 12:20 at Musselburgh where I backed Palomar for £240 @ 2.30 just as he was contending the lead with the intention of laying off @ around 1.80. Soon after I had placed the back the horse came under pressure and was soon looking in trouble. I had put a lay up @ 1.80 but quickly took a £27 lay @ 2.20 to limit my loss on the race to £213. I had a small profitable trade in the next at Musselburgh before my next disappointing trade in the 13:20, also at Musselburgh. Here I started with a back on Black Chalk for £40 @ 3.30 and laid off @ 2.94. I then backed him again for £82 @ 2.50 and put a lay up for £100 @ 2.20. I only got matched on £15 of this. I also backed the eventual winner, Quibble for £5 @ 2.00 to leave me with my second loss on the day of £61.

I had a small profitable trade in the 13;30 at Lingfield. Next was the 13:50 at Musselburgh where I started with a scratch trade on the favourite and eventual winner, Key Time. Towards the end of the race and approaching the final hurdle I backed Key Time again for £89 @ 1.85 and laid back £88 @ 1.35. I then backed him again in the run in for £115 @ 1.03 to leave me with a profit of £47. Next I traded two races both to a small profit. Then came the 14:30 at Lingfield where I hesitated and should have made a very big profit, however I did back Cusoon for £102 @ 3.32 whist he was in front in the final furlong to net me a decent profit of £236. This was one of those situations where you can not believe the odds on offer so as a precaution you just check out all the facts to make sure you haven't made a mistake before hitting the submit button. There where several hundred more £'s on offer at the time that I first thought of backing but by the time I had satisfied myself that this really was the right horse I had missed most of the money.

In the 16:20 at Kempton I backed Algarde for £26 @ 1.50. I had put up £100 @ 1.50 at the start of the race and was surprised to get any matched as the horse led from start to finish and had set off at a price of 1.50. So I profited to the tune of £13. The final race for me was the 17:20 at Kempton and here I backed Hurricane Spirit for £33 @ 1.60 to net me another £20. So I ended my horse trading day with a profit of £68.

Tonight's match for me was the Carling Cup Semi Final between Newcastle and Chelsea. This looked like it would be a low scoring match but in a cup semi and with Chelsea starting with a much changed side anything could happen. I almost missed the start of the match and only got £14 matched @ 1.71 on the under 2.5 goal market pre kick off. With 5 minutes on the clock I backed the unders for £112 @ 1.67. I then took another £138 @ 1.65. Next I started to lay off at prices from 1.60 in £25 lots. By half time I had laid all my liability bar £25 off. Early in the second half I laid off the final £25 @ 1.15 and with 30 minutes left on the clock I greened up with a £65 lay @ 1.08 leaving me with a £65 profit no matter the result. The brilliant Drogba goal came in 79 minute, but at this late stage of the match, the under 2.5 goals market was not worth trading so  I then looked at other markets on the match to make a profit on and decided to back Chelsea, with 4 minutes on the clock, for £180 @ 1.10 and laid off £90 @ 1.06 and the rest @ 1.02 to give me an £11profit and a total match profit of £76.

I had a little trade on the Wayne Mardle v Alan Craves PDC World Darts match. I like to trade darts as there is normally plenty of opportunity to trade. I had backed Mardle for £213 @ 1.71 early in the final set and laid back @ 1.50 after Wayne threw  three good darts. This left me with a £45 profit on Mardle, but he some how lost so I had a bit of fun but made nothing. My trading day finished with a profit of £144.

Tuesday 19th December 2006 Update

Well that was a very nice surprise. I was just checking something on my Betdaq account and realised I had made another £100 from a trade I didn't even realise I had done. In my last post I mentioned the Charlton v Wycombe Carling Cup tie and the fact that it was not to be televised. What I had done here, after the Liverpool v Arsenal match was called off, I looked to see if there was another match being covered by Betdaq. I saw the Charlton match, went to the under/over 2.5 goals screen, placed a back trade on the unders and about two minutes later the screen disappeared. It was at this point that I realised the match was not to be turned in running, and, of course, I hadn't read the market info panel. So I assumed that I hadn't been matched on my trade. But I had, so the profit for today now stands at £241.

Tuesday 19th December 2006

With the weather disrupting both the UK racing and football it has been a very sparse day for me. I started trading in the 12:20 at Ayr. I backed Tell Henry for £25 @ 1.75 early on in the race and laid back @ 1.42, I then managed to back him for another £44 @ 1.70 and laid this back @ 1.20 to leave me with a profit of £30. In the 12:40 at Southwell I backed Stevedore for £9 @ 8.50 whilst in the lead at about half distance and was too slow to lay him off once he was tackled for the lead to result in a £9 loss.

I had a very small profitable trade in the 12:50 at Ayr before laying Jayanjay in the 13:00 at Lingfield for £22 @ 6.00, which resulted in a profit of £22. Next was the 13:10 at Southwell where I backed Intersky Sports for £53 @ 1.50 with two furlongs to go and him out in front to give me a £26 profit. In the 13:25 at Ayr I laid Cedrus Libani for £62 @ 2.00 as he hit the 3rd last hurdle and then backed him for £38 @ 3.30 within a few seconds to net me £25 profit. My best result of the day was in the next at Ayr, the 13:55, where I backed Coach Lane for £282 @ 1.78 at about half a mile out and laid back @ 1.66. I then backed him again on the run in for £370 @ 1.02 whilst fighting off the challenge from The Biker, this trade gave me a £39 profit. I had two more small profitable gains and that was the end of the racing. I finished the racing today with a £141 profit.

I was looking forward to the Carling Cup clash between Liverpool and Arsenal but it was not to be as the match was called off due to fog. I then turned my attention to the other cup match between Charlton and Wycombe but soon realised that this match was not to be turned in running due to the lack of TV coverage. So my day ended very early for a change and I ended with a total profit of £141.

Monday 18th December 2006

I am feeling good today. My day has been profitable, with my first trade very good, and I have wiped out the loss that I made last Sunday. I said it would take me two weeks to get back that horrendous loss and in the end it took me just 8 days. My confidence is restored and the kids will have their Christmas, only joking on that last part. This job is part skill, part luck, but in the main it is about your frame of mind, and my mind is back where it should be.

My first trade was in the 12:30 at Taunton and, unusually for me, I backed Classic Fair before the off for £22 @ 9.00 believing the odds on offer were too high with the intention of laying off soon after the start of the race. Things didn't pan out the way I thought and I laid off £20 @ 9.30. I also laid Gotta Get On for £9 @ 20.00 and Dilay Brook for £3 @ 2.10. This had all put me in a position of a small profit. Then in the last 50 yards I noticed Classic Fair coming again and I set up a back on screen just in case. With the line fast approaching I hit my submit button with a back for £200 @ 2.00 and, luckily for me I got it all matched @ 2.77 to leave me with a profit of £380, a great start to the day.

I then had two small profitable trades, both at Taunton. The next trade I had was in the 15:45, again at Taunton, and here I started with a lay on Koumba, soon after he began to lose his place at around half distance, for £65 @ 6.00. I then backed back £29 @ 7.30 and a little later £5 @ 30.00 to leave me all green and a profit of £32. That was the end of my racing trades due to my domestic duties and I ended up with a profit of £418.

Tonight's football match was the Fulham v Middlesbrough game. SoccerStats had this down as a low scoring match. I was a Little hesitant to take too big a back on the under's and in the end backed them for £100 @ 1.71 before kick off. The price seemed to stick at this level for ages and with 10 minutes on the clock I backed the under's for a further £100 @ 1.70. I started laying off @ 1.67 and 1.64 and then the penalty was awarded and converted. At this stage I had  a liability of £145. I waited for the market to be reformed and backed another £95 @ 2.52. I started laying off @ 2.32 down to 2.08 for a total of £95. The second goal was  scored and I then had a liability of £145. The market was reformed and I backed £36 @ 4.87 and £44 @ 3.80. When the price was down at 3.30 I started gradually laying off and had laid all but £21 when the third goal came along.

I then turned my attention to the under 3.5 goal market and backed the under's for £50 @ 1.48. I laid this all off @ 1.08 to give me a profit of £20. I was also watching the No 4th Goal market and when the price of the under 3.5 goal market was @ 1.30 I managed to back the no 4th goals @ 1.50 for £23. Later I also backed the no 4th goals @ 1.30 for £32, when the under 3.5 goals was @ 1.12. These markets should have been at the same price as each other but occasionally you will see discrepancies like this and when you do they should be taken. This all left me with a profit on the match of £20 and a profit for the day of £438.

Sunday 17th December 2006

After yesterday's spectacular gains I am left with a bit of an anti-climax. I hadn't realised that there was to be no racing in England or Scotland today until I logged on to Betdaq at around 11:00am. I also had to take my 5 year old daughter to the new XSCAPE indoor snow centre at Braehead for one of her best friends birthday parties, so I knew I was to miss some of the days racing. I eventually got back at 1:45 pm and realised that Betdaq had been having some technical difficulties, it was my fault for saying on my blog the other day that it rarely happens, I had tempted fate, or perhaps it was something to do with the fact that it was the Betdaq Christmas party today?

My racing consisted of just three trades. My first one was a small profitable trade in the 14:15 at Thurles where I made £3. The next was an even smaller losing trade at Navan. So my only decent racing trade was in the 15:45 at Thurles. I had started with a lay of Fond Of a Drop for £40 @ 6.40. I then backed him for £40 @ 7.00. A few seconds later I thought I would green up on both sides so I placed a further lay of £4 @ 6.00, at this stage I had a profit on any horse winning of £4. As the race developed I managed to back Fond Of a Drop for £13 @ 3.15 and on the run in a further £30 @ 1.25 to leave me with a profit on the race of £40. So there you have it my racing day was over with a total profit on the day of £41.

I intended to trade the Spanish football but after picking up my daughter, making the Sunday roast and talking to visitors I decided to watch the Golf and Snooker Final. The SoccerStats site was playing up so I couldn't access any of the stats for tonight's matches which also had a bearing on my decision for tonight's trading.

I turned the golf on as Tiger Woods was 3 shots clear and on the 9th hole. I watched for a while before backing the Tiger for £200 @ 1.20 and then laying off at 1.16 to 1.12. By the 16th hole it was looking like Tiger all the way and I backed him again for £545 @ 1.05, then felt a bit uncomfortable so I commenced laying this off @ 1.03. This left me with a profit on the golf of £27.

In the UK Snooker Championship final I only had a small trade where I backed Peter Ebdon for £390 @ 1.32 whilst he was 8 -6 up against Stephen Hendry. With Peter well ahead in the frame I commenced laying off with lays at 1.23 for £100 and 1.20 for £105. At this stage Stephen got back to the table and I made a further lay for £185 @ 1.32 to get rid of my liability and leave me with a profit of £23 when Peter eventually won the Championship. This left me with a total profit on the day of £91, and a profit for the week of £2512.

I have been accused of using a word that does not exist and have purposely not used the said word in today's entry. I find it irritating when someone uses a word that either does not exist or is in the wrong context and I want to get this right . So what is the past tense of lay? I have researched this on the internet and it does appear that the correct term is laid and I will use this from now on. I would like to thank The Gambler, who has had a lot better education than I have, for pointing this out to me.

Saturday 16th December 2006

From the out set today I felt really up for this trading game and I have had a very good day. I got off to the all important good start in my first trade on the 12:25 at Haydock where I backed and layed Tidal Fury seven times throughout the race. As I said yesterday these are my favourite types of race to trade where there are not too many runners, a decent amount of prize money up for grabs and decent quality horses competing. My first trade was a toe in the water by backing tidal Fury for £21 @ 2.00, then laying off @ 1.82. I then backed again for £19 @ 2.10 and again for £292 @ 1.51 close to the final fence. I then layed him for £192 @ 1.40 and £130 @ 1.04 to net myself a decent £91 profit in the first trade of the day.

In the 12:55 at Lingfield I backed Financial Times for £6 @ 2.97 just as he took the lead about two furlongs out but he was soon headed and I didn't manage to lay off so I lost my £6. Next up was the 13:00 at Haydock. Here I backed Vicario for £83 @ 1.81 just as he took the lead with two furlongs to go and never saw the need to lay off so I made a profit of £68. I then traded the 13:10 at Ascot and backed Billyvoddan for £170 @ 1.50, three furlongs out whilst back in the lead and running on strongly. I did lay a part of this off with £50 @ 1.10 and netted myself a £79 profit. Next for me was the 13:35 at Haydock and here things didn't go so well as I managed to back Truckers Tavern for £4 @ 2.29 and £33 @ 1.50 just as he hit the final fence and had no chance of getting out to lose me £37.

Now came 10 minutes of sheer brilliance, the type of thing us traders dream of. I have always been a fan of Beef or Salmon and just as he came upside of You Sir approaching the last hurdle of the 13:55 at Fairyhouse there was plenty of money trying to lay him @ 2.60. I tried to get £1200 but got beaten to most of it and was left with a back of £312 @ 2.59 to net me a very good £497. This horse has now won 18 races from his 41 runs and also has 7, 2nds and 6, 3rds to his name according to the Sportinglife website. To round off this brilliant ten minutes I traded the 14:05 at Haydock. Whilst listening to John Francome pre race on Channel 4 Racing, I agreed that Rhinestone Cowboy was a big price @ 13.00 on the Daq so I took a speculative £10 on him. It soon became apparent that He was not up to his finest form and I layed back £6 @ 8.00 and later layed a further £10 @ 8.60. Then I was watching Oscar Park and had a lay covered on the screen and just as he hit the 3rd hurdle I layed him for £800 @ 4.80 to net me a very nice £806 profit in the race. This is the type of thing that keeps you going after a bad day like I had last Sunday. I said then that I  would make this money back within two weeks, and I am on track to do it. By saying that last sentence some readers may think I am being a touch arrogant, I am not at all but a trader needs to be and feel confident to consistently make money and this week I have been rebuilding this confidence.

In the next two races I traded to very small stakes and made a very small profit. The next trade for me was the 14:35 at Haydock where I backed Kandjar D'allier in the run in for £154 @ 1.20 to net me a further £30 profit. I then had a very small profitable trade before the 15:05 at Haydock where I layed Super Nick just as he made a mistake at the 4th for £27 @ 6.00 to give me  another £27 profit. At the next at Haydock, the 15:35, I backed Smart Tom for £52 @ 3.50 quite early on in the race and layed back @ 3.06 which netted me a further £23 profit. Haydock has been good for me today, it may be because I was watching on Channel 4, so I was getting faster pictures.

I had one other small profitable trade later on at Kempton and that was the end of the days racing with me in profit to the tune of £1585 and still with no commission to pay with the 0% offer from Betdaq.

Tonight's Spanish football match was the clash between Real Zaragoza and Valencia, two cities in Spain that I have worked in. I was aware that ScoccerStats.com had this as a high scoring game and decided to only have a very small trade on the under 2.5 goals. I started pre kick off with a back of £40 @ 1.85 and traded out @ 1.50. I then took other small trades in and out of the market to finish with a profit of £19. I also had a small trade on the under 1.5 goal market for a £5 profit. To be honest I should not have been trading this as I was watching the X-Factor final at the same time and then Parkinson. I also had a small trade on the X-Factor final where I made a £5 profit. I would think that the Jack of All Trades and Master of Speciality Bets, Ed Murray, or better known as DJ Sunset will have made a packet on this one. He has an uncanny knack of getting this type of bet correct most times, good luck Ed. Well that was my day. I had no interruptions as all the children were out with relatives for parties and plays etc and I ended up with a very good £1614 profit.

Friday 15th December 2006

It's been a very good day for the Purple Sports Trader with just one losing trade from the twelve that I executed. I started the day with a very small profit in the 12:15 at Uttoxeter. In the 12:45 again at Uttoxeter I layed Mandatum for £45 @ 5.10 at about half distance when he wasn't travelling very well. I then backed him for £10 @ 6.0 and a further £15 @ 7.50 to partially offset my liability and with Mandatum still not looking like a winner I kept the rest of my lay to leave me with a profit of £20. Next race for me was the 13:10 at Gowran Park and here I backed Jack Ingham for £67 @ 2.00 whilst being pursued by the eventual runner-up Brave Right. I then layed off £54 @ 1.80 and  £13 @ 1.70 to cover my liability and when Jack Ingham won left me with a profit of £14.

In the 13:50 at Uttoxeter I layed the very short odds on favourite, Opera de Coeur, just as he blundered at the 5th fence for £653 @ 1.53. He then seemed to improve a little and with such a large liability I  backed him back for £500 @ 1.73 and a further £20 @ 1.90 to give me profit no matter the result. Later as it looked like the horse would be pulled up I layed him again for £5 @ 15.00 and again for £20 @ 19.00, to net me a very decent £172 profit. I then had two very small profitable trades before my only loser of the day at Uttoxeter in the 14:25 where I managed to back the eventual runner-up Lord Lorcan for £15 @ 1.12 and lay the winner Negus de Beaumont for £2 @ 2.00. This race only cost me £17 which was a result considering I got everything wrong. I recovered well by getting everything right in the next race that I traded, the 14:35 at Ascot. I like races like this with a smallish field and good quality horses where all would be trying their best and anyone could win. This always improves liquidity and allows for a good chance to trade. I started by laying the short priced favourite Natal for £200 @ 2.00 and then backed £160 @ 2.90 which had already put me in a win/win situation. I later backed Briareus for 333 @ 1.80 and put up a lay to cover this back @ 1.06. I only got £33 matched before I cancelled. I also, some how, got £9 matched @ 5.00 over the last fence to net me a very good £342 profit. I then had two more small profitable trades before I had to stop to cook the evening meal for my family. So I ended the racing day with a profit of £538.

Tonight's live televised football match was the Championship clash between Luton and Southend. The stats pointed to an over 2.5 goals match so I took a cautious approach to my under 2.5 goals trading. I started pre kick off with a back of the unders of £100 @ 1.99. At this level of liability I feel very relaxed and therefore waited for the price to drop to 1.80 before laying back £50. I then decided to back again for £36 @ 1.75. I kept going in to back and out to lay this market and had a total of 22 trades, which, by half time had netted me £59 on the match. This is not my normal style of trading, but I was conscious of the fact that my football has let me down this last few days and the fact that I had had a good day to date, so I didn't want to mess things up by being too greedy. I therefore had a fairly limited liability at any time and even then only for very short periods of time. I then looked at the other markets on this match and had a few very quick backs then lays of the 0-0 correct score market.  Here again I had 8 trades in total, to a maximum liability of £260 but for only a minute at a time at most. This trading gave me another £37 profit so in total I made £95 profit on the match and this left me with a very good £633 profit for the day.

I am often asked why, when I believe a match will have more than 2.5 goals, do I still trade the under 2.5 goals market. The reason is that you will lose less often doing this. If I had backed the over 2.5 goals market I would never have had the chance to trade out of this position, as we know the price is going to go one way until a goal is scored. So you can call it a pure punt on goals being scored to back the over 2.5 goals market. When you trade the way I do almost every time you can trade your way out of the position with a profit or break even. You will still, as I have twice this last week, lose on occasions, but the odds are in your favour to get out with a profit.

One other thing to mention tonight is that I know many traders will have been caught out by the failure of the Betfair site tonight just before half time in the match. I hope not too many readers of this blog where involved. If you where why don't you trade a match or two on Betdaq? You will find liquidity is very similar on most matches and prices are also very similar.

Thursday 14th December 2006

This holiday season is playing havoc with my trading. I had a nativity play to attend today which meant I missed the earlier racing. I have also just finished another losing football match for me because I didn't practise what I preach. On a happier not it is good to see my mate The Smilling Assassin has turned in a profitable full 12 months of trading and that he will be using Betdaq in the New Year.

The first race I could trade today was the 13:05 at Gowran Park, in which I had a very small profitable trade and likewise in the 13:20 at Catterick. So my first trade of any significance was the 13:40 at Exeter where I backed Sporazene for £50 @ 1.50  about two thirds distance and layed off a furlong later @ 1.20 to net me a profit of £15. In the 13:50 at Catterick I had backed Stroom Bank for £64 @ 1.70 whist well in command and about 3 fences out. It later became apparent that he wouldn't win and I backed Go For One for 60 @ 1.70 to leave me with a loss of £22. Next was the 14:40 at Exeter where I backed Pole Star for £55 @ 3.70 when in the lead at about half distance. I then layed back at 2.85 to net me a profit of £47. I had a £4 lay on Jolly Boy in the 14:50 at Catterick for a £4 profit. My next race was the 15:35 at Gowran Park and here I backed Chiaaz for £129 @ 2.00 when leading about four furlongs from the finish and layed back @ 1.67 when he started tiring, although he hung on to win to give me a £42 profit. Apart form a very small profitable trade at Wolverhampton that was the end of my racing day and I had a profit of £93.

With a selection of UEFA cup matches to watch I decided to go with the Tottenham v Dinamo Bucuresti game. I missed the start of the game and backed the under 2.5 goals for £88 @ 1.61. I had just started to put a lay up when the first goal went in. I backed the unders again for £88 @ 2.30 and then decided to have another £89 @ 2.33. I took the view that if 2.30 was value then the 2.33 was better value so I took this extra amount. This time I had layed £83 @ 1.96 and then a further £40 @ 1.90 before the second goal was scored, so now I had a £142 liability standing me at 2.14. After the second goal was scored I backed the unders for £160 @ 3.76 then quickly layed off £108 @ 3.40. Then the odds went all over the place and I backed the unders again for £120 @ 3.80 and had layed off £25 @ 3.30 when the third goal came and caught me with a loss of £307. I should have layed more at this stage but I was too greedy not just looking to get out even but wanted to get a profit. I then turned to the under 3.5 goal market and backed £83 @ 3.10 which would have got me 60% of my loss back. But I, again, thought I would hold out longer than normal and could have layed off the £83 for a cost of £13. It looked as if I had done right but with 2 minutes left Dinamo scored and that was that. A loss on my football trading of £390 to leave me with a loss on the day of £298.