The Sports Trader

Wednesday 31st January 2007

The Sports Trader has had a really good day to round off a good month. I traded in 9 horse races with no losing trades and I even managed to trade profitably on 2 football matches tonight.

My first race was the 13:20 at Newcastle where I started with a back of Imperial Commander for £6 @ 2.10 before laying back @ 2.08 and then backed him again, whilst in the lead with about 3 furlongs to go, for £64 @ 1.51, to leave me with a profit of £33. I then had a small, profitable trade.

The 14:10 at Leicester provided me with my best result of the day. I watched the race right up to the just before the final fence and then I backed Back For The Craic for £1111 @ 1.44. I laid off £8 @ 1.20 and a further £100 @ 1.10 before realising the race was safe and cancelled my other lays to net me a profit of £477. By the way take a look at the Leicester Racecourse link, they have produced a brilliant website.

In the 14:40 at Leicester I just had a small scratch trade with no profit or loss. My next race was the 15:40 at Leicester. Here I backed Englishtown for £131 @ 1.40 about a furlong out and laid off @ 1.25 to leave me with a no risk profit of £20.

My next race was the 15:50 at Newcastle where I backed Master Sebastian for £100 @ 1.82 with two furlongs to go. I then backed him again, on the run in for £400 @ 1.01 to give me a profit of £86. I then had two small, profitable trades.

My last race of the day was the 16:30 at Lingfield where I backed Nawow for £658 @ 1.30 on the run in and had put up a lay @ 1.10 but cancelled before it got matched to leave me with another good result and a profit of £197. So my racing day had finished with a total profit of £815.

I decided to watch the Arsenal v Spurs match tonight and after about 12 minutes of the match I backed the under 2.5 goals for £174 @ 1.74. I laid off £150 @ 1.58 and £24 @ 1.46. Then early in the second half I greened up with a lay of £26 @ 1.15 to leave me with £26 whatever the result.

I also did a bit of channel hoping and watched some of the St.Johnstone v Hibs match on BBC1 Scotland. I had a very small trade on the under 2.5 goal market to net me £3.

Later I watched all the extra time in the Arsenal match. Unusually for me I traded the Extra Time match result and started with a back on the draw for £250 @ 2.40 just at the start before laying off £200 @ 2.25 within a minute. I then just had a few trades backing both Arsenal and Spurs to win, to square my book. I ended with a profit on all outcomes, but with the best result being an Arsenal win, so I ended up with a profit of £35. My football trading therefore produced a profit of £64. Which left me with a very healthy profit on the day of £880.

Well I have been thinking all through January that it had been a tough month for me but my final result for the month is a profit of £5529, which is a lot better than I had been predicting. Within this figure I still had a loss on football of £600.

You will have noticed that I have been adding features to my blog recently to try to earn a little revenue for the effort I put in writing, it does not come that easy to me. I have a lot of visitors to my blog coming from out with Sports Trading due to my blog being listed on Blog directories. The adds are mainly aimed at these people to give them a few pointers in the right direction if they decide to dip their toes in this brilliant profession of ours. Some of the adds may appeal to fellow traders and if so I hope that they help you. I hope these ads do not offend or detract from the experience you have when visiting.

Tuesday 30th January 2007

Well it has been a reasonable, if some what slow, day on the horse trading but spoilt by trading on football once again.  I only traded on 7 races but they were all profitable. My first trade was in the 13:30 at Southwell where I laid Miss Holly for £100 @ 2.00 just coming into the final furlong when trying to get on terms with the leaders but looking unlikely to get to the front. So I had made a £100 profit in the race.

Next I had 3 small, profitable races before trading in the 16:10 at Taunton. I started with a back of Stan for £17 @ 3.80 before laying off @ 2.70 and later on the run in I backed the eventual winner, Malaga Boy for £500 @ 1.03 to give me a profit of £15.

I only traded on 2 more races and both of these ended in small profits. So I had finished my race trading day with a profit of £123.

I thought I would dip my toe in the water with my football trading tonight with the West Ham v Liverpool match. Looking at the stats on my favoured site SoccerStats.com it looked like being an under 2.5 goal match. I started with a back of the unders for £318 @ 2.00 just before the start. I then traded out of this position with trades @ 1.90 down to 1.55 at which point I had no liability and a profit on the unders of £75. I decided to wait for half time before greening up my position. Just at half time I took another position by backing the unders for £200 @ 1.28 and had intended laying off during the interval, however I could not get matched so I left my lays up into the second half. With 10 seconds on the clock a goal had been scored and I was kicking myself for not greening up my position and taking a profit of £60 what ever the result.

After the goal was scored I backed the unders for a further £126 @ 1.67, and again soon after the second goal was scored, so now I was sitting on a £326 liability. If I had been in a confident mood with my football trading I would have backed the unders again for £2-300 at the prevailing odds of around 3.50 and I would have traded out of this match easily, however as you all know I am not confident and therefore decided to sit on the liability and start to trade out at around evens to get out with a small loss or even break-even. I started laying @ 2.10 and 1.90 before the third goal came and finished off my trade with a loss of £300.

I then backed the under 3.5 goals for £300 @ 1.72 to limit my losses. I was more than a little worried about this added liability in particular with the way the game had changed since half time and finally chickened out and laid back my under 3.5 goal position @ 1.37. This left me with a profit of £106 on this trade and an overall loss on the match of £193. I therefore finished the day with a loss of £70.

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Monday 29th January 2007

It's been slow going today with only 5 races traded on and I had the worst possible start in my first race, the 13:30 at Ludlow where I started with a back on Scotland yard for £35 @ 3.00 and laid off @ 2.50, then I thought I would try again and backed him for £100 @ 2.60 when still well in the lead. I did put a lay up at @ 2.00 but could not get matched and therefore suffered a loss of £100.

In the 15:30 at Ludlow I started with a back on Air Force One for £92 @ 1.90 and laid off @ 1.65. Later I backed him for a further £84 @ 1.70 and laid back @ 1.60 to net me a profit of £31. Next I had 2 small, profitable trades.

In my last race of the day, the 16:30 at Ludlow, I had my best result. I laid Butterfly Rose for £184 @ 8.50 around 3 furlongs out when coming under pressure but not improving. I backed her for 10 @ 9.70 and then a further £57 @ 18.10 to leave me with a profit on the race of £117. I therefore finished my racing trades with a profit of £50.

I had a look at tonight's live football match between Oxford Utd and Rushden & Diamonds. I watched the match and decided to back Oxford to win for £152  @ 1.80. I thought this would be an easy win for Oxford, but as the game progressed I started to fear the worst and laid Oxford for £82 @ 2.32 to leave me with a £70 liability. I then decided to Back the under 1.5 goals for £180 @ 1.64 to offset my liability on the game. A goal was scored and I backed the under 1.5 goals again for £45 @ 3.20. I started laying off this liability for £75 @ 2.20 and £50 @ 2.10. Later I laid another ££50 @ 1.12. I had also put up a lay of the correct score 0 - 1 for £125 @ 1.10 in case I couldn't get matched on my under 1.5 lays. I had a computer problem and had to restart my machine whilst both sets of lays were offered. By the time I had fired my machine up all the lays had been taken which meant that I had over laid. My final result was a loss of £9 on the match, which was a good result considering the mess I was in after the goal had been scored.  My days final result was a profit of £41.

Sunday 28th January 2007

The Sports Trader has had another decent day with just 9 races traded. I started with the 13:20 at Leopardstown where I started with a back of £286 @ 3.31 on Hairy Molly before laying back £286 at 2.72. I then laid a further £25 @ 2.60 to give me a profit of £25. I then had 2 small, profitable trades.

My worst result of the day was in the 14:25 at Wolverhampton where I laid Kitchen Sink for £27 @ 2.22 with about two furlongs to go when I thought he had little chance of getting through other horses to the front, but he did and I therefore lost £27. In the 15:25 at Leopardstown I backed Kazal for £6 @ 2.81 to land an £11 profit.

My next was the 15:45 at Kelso and here I laid King of Slane for £31 @ 12.00 before backing back for £3 @ 100.00 to give me a profit of £28. In the 16:15 also at Kelso I laid Touch of Irish for £16 @ 3.25 inside the final two furlongs for another £16 profit. I then had a small losing trade.

My best and last trade of the day was in the 16:35 at Wolverhampton where I laid Second Reef for £64 @ 19.50 just before the final furlong when he was well beaten to give me a profit of £64. I therefore finished my race trading with a profit of £109.

I watched some of the Arsenal v Bolton match without taking any positions as I knew I would have to go out and pick up the children during the match. Later in the evening I did have some small trades on the Real Betis v Valencia match mainly on the under 2.5 goals market but also on the under 3.5 goal market to give me an overall profit on the match of £8.

Later still I had a few small trades in the Buick Invitational Golf Tournament where Tiger Woods won his fifth Buick event to give me a profit of £13.

My day has finished with a profit of £130 and I have finished this week with a reasonable profit of £990.

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Saturday 27th January 2007

After having to turn down a trip to Cheltenham races today, due to lack of childcare, I have had a decent day to partially compensate for missing such a great occasion.

My first trade was in the 12:35 at Lingfield where I backed Bobski for £211 @ 1.10  inside the final furlong, whilst in the lead, to give me a profit of £21. There was a stewards enquiry after the race looking into the possible interference by the winner on the second placed horse. Betdaq did not offer a market during the enquiry so I laid my liability on Betfair @ 1.02 and then had further trades to offset my liability and still show a profit what ever the result.  Next I had three small, profitable trades. My best result of the day was in my next race, the 13:25 at Uttoxeter, where I laid Back On Line for £413 @ 4.00, just before the final hurdle, whilst she was in second place and about 5 lengths behind the leader and eventual winner, Arisea. I did back her to cover some of my liability for £10 @ 10.00 and then greened up with a back of £4 @ 795.00, to leave me with a very good profit of £399.

Next I had another 3 small and profitable trades. in the 15:20 at Cheltenham. I started with a lay of Katchit for £50 @ 2.60 before the off and just after the announcement of the withdrawal of the second favourite Mountain, then I backed him for £50 @ 3.25. I later laid Katchit for a further £2 @ 4.76 and this all resulted in a profit of £25. I then had another 5 small trades, 2 of which resulted in losses and the other 3 profits.

My last race of the day was the 16:30 at Cheltenham where I backed Ashley Brook for £33 @ 1.50 before laying off @ 1.10 to leave me with a profit of £13. So at the end of my race trading day I had a total profit of £478.

Later I had a few small trades on the Man. U. v Portsmouth football match which ended in an overall profit of £12. I then had a quick look at the end of the Northampton v Bristol rugby match and backed Bristol for £250 @ 1.04 just before the final whistle to give me a £10 profit.

Next I had a look at the Atletico Madrid v Racing Santander match and had a few small trades on the under 2.5 goals market to net me £10. My last trade was in the Villarreal v Real Madrid game. I backed the correct score of 1 - 0 in injury time for £86 @ 1.30 and laid off £7 @ 1.17 along with a couple of very small trades on the under 2.5 goals market to give me a total profit of £27.

So my day has finished and I have produced a profit of £537.

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Friday 26th January 2007

It's been a slow day with only 8 trades on the racing and only one showing a loss (14p). I started in the 13:50 at Hereford where I backed Wyldello for £91 @ 1.28 and laid off £53 @ 1.22 to leave me a profit of £14. Next was a small, profitable trade in the 14:00 at Wolverhampton.

In the 14:20 at Hereford I laid Jeremy Cuddle Duck for £50 @ 4.00 before backing back for £40 @ 5.00, all this before the untimely demise of the horse after a heavy fall at the last fence. I finished with a profit of £10 in the race. The next race was my losing only race where I lost 14p. I then had 4 more small, profitable trades to finish my trading on races with a profit of £41.

In tonight's live football match I did have a small trade but only after 68 minutes had already been played and the score was at 2 - 0. I backed the under 2.5 goals market for £80 @ 3.53 and laid off £40 @ 3.05 and £40 @ 3.00. I later backed the unders for a further £80 @ 1.88 and laid this off @ 1.78 within a minute. I then laid another £20 @ 1.75 to leave me a profit what ever the result. In the end I finished with a £33 profit.

I therefore finished my day with a total profit of £74.

Thursday 25th January 2007

A much better day for the Sports Trader with the Betdaq site working well and good racing on offer. I managed to trade in 20 races with 4 losing trades.

My first significant trade was in the 13:30 at Southwell where I backed Picador for £850 @ 1.015 when well in front and about to cross the finishing line to net me a profit of £12. I then had 4 small trades, one of which lost me £1, whilst the other 3 all returned small profits. My next was the 14:15 at Gowran Park and here I laid Jigalo for £30 @ 4.50 before backing @ 6.00 for £17 to net me a profit of £13.

In the 14:30 at Southwell I laid Red Rock River for £15 @ 4.50 just coming into the straight whilst being bumped about by other horses, just behind a wall of 5 leaders. I didn't think he could win after that but he did and I had my first major loss on the day of £53. In the 14:20 at Fontwell I laid Garrulous for £34 @ 1.88 when approaching the final hurdle and coming under serious pressure to give me a profit of £34.

Next for me was the 14:40 at Warwick where I started with a lay of Eborarry for £79 @ 3.09 and then backed him back for £71 @ 3.40. I later laid Milton Des Bieffes for £9 @ 4.50 to net myself a profit of £17. In my next race I had a small, profitable trade.

In the 14:50 at Fontwell I laid Brigadier Du Bois for £220 @ 5.04 before backing back @ 7.25 for £46, 20.00 for £10 and 100.00 for £4 to leave me with a profit of £160 and no liability. In the 16:05 at Nad Al Sheba I laid Tiza for £13 @ 2.80 to net a further £13 profit. I also had another 3 small, profitable trades and 1 small losing trade to finish my day off with a total profit of £235.

Wednesday 24th January 2007

Very little to report today due to a systems outage at Betdaq. I missed the whole days racing although I did do a little trading on Betfair and was pleasantly surprised to see I could still trade manually on their site. I made about £30, although I will not include that in my weekly results.

Later tonight I did a little trading on the Spurs v Arsenal match and unusually I started by laying the under 2.5 goals for £133 @ 1.87. Soon after the first goal was scored I  backed the unders for £133 @ 2.89. Later in the match I began greening up with lays @ 6.33 down to 3.00 to leave me with a profit of £40 on the match and final result on the day.

Tuesday 23rd January 2007

It has been another slow day. I had a small, profitable trade in the 13:40 at Southwell. Then I had a minor disaster in the 13:50 at Thurles where I had laid Cleni Boy for £20 @ 4.00 at about half distance and hadn't reckoned on Ruby Walsh being beaten on Pontium. But he was and so early in the day I was down £60.

I then had three small, profitable trades before the 16:10 at Southwell where I laid Greenbelt for £20 @ 9.80 when well beaten to secure me a £20 profit. My next race was my last and it was in the 16:20 at Thurles. I backed Whyso Mayo for £804 @ 1.14 when just taking the final fence to give me a much needed profit of £111. This left me with a profit on my racing for the day of £75.

Now I need a good stern telling off. After all my statements about leaving football alone for a while, I decided to trade on the Chelsea v Wycombe match. I waited until after the kick off and then backed the under 2.5 goals for 144 @ 2.46 before laying off £94 @ 2.37 and a further £50 @ 2.22. So when the first goal was scored I had no liability and a potential profit of £20.  Approaching half time I backed the unders for £70 @ 2.67 and within seconds the second goal was scored. I then backed the unders for £16 @ 6.00 to leave me with a liability of £86 with a break-even point of 3.45. Things where going well and I laid off £10 @ 4.50. I then put up several lays at 3.25 down to 3.00 to clear my liability. There was a lack of liquidity tonight otherwise all these lays would have been long gone before the third goal, but that is the way things go and I had just lost £76. I then went on and backed the under 3.5 goals for £40 @ 1.29 with less than one minute on the clock and of course the Football gambling gods kicked me where it hurts again with a goal in injury time to leave me nursing a match loss of £116.

This has resulted in a loss on the day of £42.

I was reading the Betdaq Exchange Views Blog earlier today and came across the link to David Stewart's Horsegraphs Blog. It is a very interesting concept of mapping the chances of the main runners in a race, based on current form and time or speed ratings, in the form of a graph. As you will read on his blog David is the famous 'Computer Kid' as named by the Sun newspaper back in 1983 when he had an uncanny knack of picking winners with the use of a Sinclair ZX81 computer. He has also worked for the Racing Post, Sporting Life, Attheraces and The Sportsman. It is well worth a read and I will follow his progress with great interest.