The Sports Trader

Monday 4th December 2006

The horse racing was a bit of a non event for me today. I did try to trade in almost all the 21 UK races but only got matched in 6 of them. I must be getting slow in my old age. The first I traded in was the 12:10 at Lingfield where I had a straight lay on Davidia for £8 @ 9.50. In the 13:30 at Wolverhampton I backed Fantasy Defender for £13 @ evens about two furlongs out only to see him beaten in the final furlong and was not able to trade out. I thought I had cracked it in the 13:50 at Fakenham where I backed Avalon for £200 @ 2.90 about 1 mile out when McCoy had his mount going well and about 4to 5 lengths in front. I layed £200 @ 2.25 within 20 seconds so had myself a £130 profit if he won. When it became apparent that Avalon would not win I only managed to lay off another £10 @ 2.33 so I was left with a £10 profit, quite disappointing considering the position was in and, in hind sight, I should have layed more off earlier. In the Next at Wolverhampton, the 14:30 I had a straight lay on Rowanbeery for £25 @ 7.00 and duly won the £25. I had two other very small trades before it was time to do the school run so I missed the rest of the days races. So I ended the racing day with a profit of £31.

Tonight's football match, in Stuart Pearce's words, was ' a good old fashioned game' between Man City and Watford. I did my normal analysis of this match using the facts and stats on the SoccerSATS.com site and realised this was to be a great opportunity to bet the unders. I have used one of their tables of stats below which clearly shows that with Man city averaging just 1.00 goal at home and Watford averaging only 0.42 goals away from home, this was as likely to be an under 2.5 goal match than many you would come across, therefore an ideal match to trade on, or, if this is what you do, take an outright position on the unders.

	Home goals		Away goals		Overall goals
	For	Against	For	Against	For	Against
Arsenal	2.00	0.50	1.28	1.14	1.66	0.80
Aston Villa	1.50	0.87	0.87	1.00	1.18	0.93
Blackburn	1.25	1.12	0.50	1.33	0.92	1.21
Bolton	1.00	0.87	0.87	1.00	0.93	0.93
Charlton	0.71	1.00	0.75	2.00	0.73	1.53
Chelsea	2.00	0.42	1.37	0.62	1.66	0.53
Everton	1.62	0.62	0.87	1.25	1.25	0.93
Fulham	0.87	0.87	1.12	2.00	1.00	1.43
Liverpool	1.75	0.37	0.62	1.50	1.18	0.93
Man United	2.12	0.37	2.25	0.62	2.18	0.50
Manchester City	1.00	0.14	0.75	2.00	0.86	1.13
Middlesbrough	0.87	1.12	0.71	1.42	0.80	1.26
Newcastle	0.85	1.00	0.42	1.14	0.64	1.07
Portsmouth	1.75	0.75	0.87	1.00	1.31	0.87
Reading	1.37	1.12	0.85	1.28	1.13	1.20
Sheffield Utd.	1.12	1.37	0.25	1.12	0.68	1.25
Tottenham	1.42	0.71	0.37	1.75	0.86	1.26
Watford	1.00	1.00	0.42	1.85	0.71	1.42
West Ham United	1.14	0.85	0.25	1.50	0.66	1.20
Wigan Athletic	1.42	1.42	1.00	1.42	1.21	1.42

I started off by backing the unders before kick off for £280 @ 1.73 then in a hurry trying to back more before the kick off with the price already starting to fall managed to lay £200 @ 1.71 instead of backing, not a happy chappy! As soon as the market was reformed at the start of the match I backed another £250 @ 1.65. I then decided with 20 minutes on the clock and a huge wad of £3500 offered @ 1.55 when the market should have been falling quite fast, to back the unders for £1000 @ 1.55. More or less as soon as I had taken this the market dropped and I layed back £500 @ 1.50. I then took my time laying off in £50 chunks to get all out of my liability and just at half time greened up with a profit of £160+ both sides. In the second half I was able to sit back and enjoy a game with no pressure and just waited for a goal to enable me to get back into the market, but a goal never came so I ended with a £161 profit for my 45 minutes work. This left me with a respectable £192 profit for the day. I feel like a part timer due to lack of trading today.

Sunday 3rd December 2006

Not a good day and I had to rely on the football to get me out of trouble again. I started with the 13:00 at Kelso where I backed According To John for £300 @ 1.25 about two thirds distance when he appeared to be toiling a bit and layed off @ between 1.11 and 1.25 to leave a profit of £43. In the next race the 13:05 at Fairyhouse I made my first purely trading mistake where I had backed Clopf around two furlongs out for £156 @ 1.51 and thought he would go on and win, however he just plodded away one paced and was over taken just before the final hurdle to leave me nursing a £156 loss. Next up was the 13:10 at Warwick where I backed Character Building on five occasions throughout the race for a total of £500 at prices from 1.10 to 2.65 and layed off £70  @ 2.40 to leave me with a profit of £86. At kelso in the 13:30 I layed Jimmys Duky for £21 @ 4.00 and backed Fearless Foursome for £307 @ 1.10 in the final furlong to leave another profit of £52. In the next Kelso race, the 14:00, I had several not very good trades on Ever Present that left me with a £10 loss but also managed to lay Rambling Minster for £117 @ 4.00 on the run in when it looked like Ever Present was going to throw the race away ,so I got out of this race with a £110 profit. At this stage all seemed to be going not too bad but in the next two races I had a couple of sizable losses. In the 14:30 at Kelso I backed Leprechaun's Maite for £66 @ 2.20 and thought the horse would win but he was beaten on the line by a short head. In the photo to follow I did manage to reduce my loss by backing the winner for £322 @ 1.10 to leave a loss of £34 on the race. Then came the last race of the day for me and the one that left me wishing I had finished just one race earlier. I had backed Killard Point around two furlongs out for £245 @ 1.60 when he seemed well in control but for the second time in the day was just beaten to the post by a short head so I suffered a big loss of £245. This left me with a loss on the days racing of £140.

I missed the first half of the Everton v West Ham match so I just watched for a while and as soon as the first goal was scored I started backing the under 2.5 goals for £570 @ 1.40 and then gradually layed off from 1.30 down to 1.06. by the time the second goal was scored I was clear of any liability and went in again and backed the unders for £180 @ 1.12 and again layed off between 1.08 and 1.02. This left me with a profit on the match of £104. The next match I traded was the Real Madrid v Athletic Bilbao game where Real were definite favourites and where a few goals where expected. I therefore adopted my cautious trading approach. I had missed the start of the match but managed to get on the unders for £352 @ 1.90 and proceeded to lay off quite quickly at 1.80 down to 1.66. I still had a liability when the first goal was scored, I managed to back the unders again for £100 @ 3.08 to 2.70 and continued to lay off. The second goal came whilst I still had a £100 potential loss and I took another small back of £30 @ 2.10. I had a £35 liability left when the third goal came and therefore looking at a loss I turned my attention to the match odds and with just 1 minute left on the clock and Real in control I backed Real to win for £1470 @ 1.03 to give me a £44 profit so I managed to turn a small profit on the game of £11. The final match of the night was the Real Zaragoza v Osasuna game where over 2.5 goals were predicted. I got on before kick off with a back of the unders of £770 @ 1.80 and then quite quickly started to lay off in £50 chunks @ 1.76 down to 1.62 for about £400 when the first goal was scored leaving me with a potential liability of £370. I took another small back of £71 @ 2.45 and then when the price had fallen to about 2.15 started to lay off again all the way down to 1.30, then I started to green up on both sides and ended up with £85 what ever the result before the second goal was scored. Not content with this I had a small back of £33 on the under 1.5 goal market, which is something that I rarely do. I had intended to lay back within a few minutes to leave a small profit but was caught when the second goal was scored therefore costing me £33. So   ended the match with a £52 profit. This left me with a profit of just £27 on the day, which is not good considering I have probably spent the best part of 10 hours trading. In fact this has been one of my worst weekends for profit but I have gone right through the week with no losses and a total profit of £2003 for the week, so in the end I am pleased with the weekly result.

Saturday 2nd December 2006

I have not had a great day today - no mistakes - just trades going against me and I needed the two Spanish football matches to come to my rescue. My day started with the 12:40 at Chepstow where I had just backed Miss Mitch for £200 @ 1.50 as she fell at the 2nd last fence which cost me the £200 not the ideal start for this job as you do feel under pressure until you make up the deficit, and, of course, resist the urge to chase. In the next race the 12:55 at Sandown I made up for some of my loss by backing Magnesium for £86 @ 2.86 approaching the final hurdle to give me a £159 profit. I then had several small trades before The Tingle Creek Chase at 14:35 at Sandown. I should have taken more notice of Russ Wiseman and his Betdaq Exchange Views Blog as Kauto Star really did show his class in this race. I did have a few small trades in the race and ended up with a £14 profit. I had a further few small trades and then in the 14:55 at Wetherby I backed Royal Rosa for £200 @ 1.50 and layed back @ 1.42 to leave a profit of £16. My afternoon was then interrupted by some visitors so the next race of significance was the 16:20 at Kempton where I listened to James Willoughby on RUK when he thought that Mo would lead from the start and would probably tire in the final furlong, so I had a lay ready for the final furlong and managed to Lay Mo for £56 @ 3.60 to net me a £56 profit. Then came the 17:20 at Kempton where I managed to back Bomber Command for £150 @ 1.65 in the final furlong and thinking my money was safe only to see the earlier back marker Vacation to come and mug me on the line to cost me £150.  So my racing day ended with a loss of £100.

My favourite football is the Spanish La Liga. Partly because I used to work in Spain and watched a lot of live football over there but also because the games are always exciting with many of the biggest names in World football playing there. After the English Premiership, La Liga has the next highest amount of games ending with less than 2.5 goals within the main European leagues. First up tonight was the Levante v Barcelona match, with Barcelona expected to win and goals were predicted so a cautious approach was taken. I backed the unders for £362 soon after kick off and proceeded to lay back from 1.56. The first goal came a few minutes before half time by which time I was out of my liability. I then backed the unders again for £380 @ 1.65 and started to lay off after half time @ 1.51 down to 1.40 then continued to lay the unders to green up. After the second goal I backed the unders for another £122 @ 1.26 with 14 minutes of the match left. I layed this off at 1.20 to 1.16 and leave me with a profit of £176 on both sides. There then came the second match of the night with Real Betis taking on Atletico Madrid. This time according to SoccerSTATS.com a low scoring match was expected. I backed the unders before kick off for £316 @ 1.53 and layed off more slowly at 1.48 down to 1.36. I was all out of my liability when the goal came and went straight back in with a back of £500 @ 1.71 and again slowly layed off from 1.66 down to 1.27. Towards the last 20 minutes I backed the unders again for £220 @ 1.15 which I layed off at 1.12 to 1.03 then greened up to leave me with £97 what ever the result. So the end result for the day was a profit of £172 which is not great for a Saturday but a lot better than it looked like earlier in the day.

Friday 1st December 2006

I have started December the way I would have chosen to. I have had 14 trades today with only one losing, as yesterday ,but todays losing one only cost me 60p. It all started with the 12:50 at Lingfield where I layed Shade cosy for £20 @ 1.50 just as Eddie Ahern got Small Stakes over the line a short head in front to net me a £20 profit. I then had a few very small trades before the 14:15 at Exeter where I layed Wee Anthony for £269 @ 3.50 whilst being ridden hard to keep competitive approaching the 4th last fence. My intention here was to lay off but it soon became apparent that this horse would not win so I left well alone and netted myself a £269 profit. I had a few more small trades and then in the 15:40 at Sandown I first backed My Turn Now for £250 @ 2.00 then chickened out and layed back all at the same price. Later in the race this horse started to look very competitive again and between the last two flights I backed him again for £250 @ 1.85 to give myself another £212 profit. I had a couple more very small trades in the first two races at Wolverhampton but missed most of the card due to my domestic duties, so I finished the racing with a profit of £538 on the day.

Now to the football tonight where there was a cup match between King's Lynn and Oldham. I expected there to be a few goals in this match so I had to trade  more conservatively than normal. I backed the unders for £156 @ 2.08 and started to lay off quite quickly from 1.93 down to 1.40, then a goal came when I still had a liability of around £90 on the overs. As soon as the market was reformed, after the goal, I backed the unders for another £263 @ 2.90. Again I was expecting more goals so I layed off between 2.65 and 2.40. I then slowed down laying whilst greening up. I had another trade after the second goal was scored where I backed another £161 @ 1.39 and later layed off, then in the final 5 minutes I backed the unders for a further £221 @ 1.18 and layed off to leave me with a profit of £99 both sides. There was a lot of trading here for the amount of profit but over time I have developed this method to make money on the very predictable unders market even if I think 3 or more goals are likely. I know some will say I should just back the overs in this situation but I consider myself to be a trader not a punter on football and this is a fairly safe way to make money in the market. To illustrate this, during last month, I had 51 trades on football with only one losing, even though 17 of these matches had 3 or more goals. I ended the day with a very good profit of £637.

Betdaq has today launched a Daily Exchange Views Blog where Betdaq's PR Director, Russ Wiseman, will give his take on the sporting day ahead along with the thoughts and ideas of other personalities from the industry.