Tuesday 5th December 2006

If I had stopped at 15:45 I would be reporting a very good result. But this game is full of ifs and we all know they count for nothing. It all started for me in the 12:50 at Sedgefield where I had backed Cloudmor about half distance for £13 @ 3.00 then layed Emperor's Monarch in the run in for £15 @ 14.5 to leave me nursing a small early loss of £12. In the 13:10 at Fontwell I backed Jades Double in the final 100 yds for £89 @ 2.00 when approaching the last hurdle and she duly went on to win leaving me with an £89 profit. Then came the 13:30 at Southwell where I managed to get a lay on Further Outlook for £96 @ 5.70 whilst being ridden hard about 3 furlongs out, again giving me a profit of £96. Next up was the 13:40 @ Fontwell a competitive Beginner's Chase. I started backing Hoh Viss for £101 @ 1.98 and then layed off @ 1.40. I made a covering bet on Flintoff for £9 @ 4.00, just in case and then further backed Hoh Viss for £25 @ 1.30 which in total left me with a profit of £58. In the next race, the 13:50 at Sedgefield I layed the struggling Stoneriggs Merc for £11@ 8.20 and then I put a back up for £150 @ 1.50 on That's Racing as he went over the last hurdle. I didn't think this would be taken but someone did take £100 of it leaving me with another £61 profit. the next race was the 14:30 at Southwell and here I was lucky to back Larky's Lob for £118 @ 2.00 early on in the straight just as he challenged for the lead and he went on to win netting me another £118 profit. I missed the next few races as I went to pick the kids up from school, so my next race was the 15:40 at Fontwell where I managed to back the eventual winner whilst coming up the hill in the final furlong for £555 @ 1.29 and again for £110 @ 1.20 to give me a further £185 profit. This is where I should have stopped for the day as it was mainly down hill from here. In the next race at Kempton I backed Heavens Walk for £145 @ 2.00 whilst in the lead and looking like the winner to me but I read this wrong and didn't see No Time coming up fast in the final 75 yards or so, which cost me my £145. That was my last race for the day and I had finished racing with a £449 profit.

In tonight's Champions League matches I looked for the game where I felt least goals would be scored, and guess what, I got this wrong as well. I chose the Galatasaray v Liverpool game and backed the unders for £193 mainly before kick off at and average price of 1.70. I held off longer than normal before putting my lays up at 1.40 to 1.46. My lays where next to be taken when Liverpool scored, so I waited for the market to reform and, luckily for me the next goal came within 2 minutes so I could not back anymore. After this second goal I put up an opportunistic £50 @ 10.00 and again none of this was taken before the third goal was scored. I now turned my attention to the under 3.5 goals market and backed the unders for £50 @ 4.20 which would have covered most of my loss on the under 2.5 goals trade. I put up lays at 2.10 and again just as they were to be taken and with only 1 minute of the game left, the fourth goal was scored, so I am now down £243. With no prospect of trading on this game to make a sizable profit I turned over to the Barcelona v Liverpool game and quickly backed the under 2.5 goals for £24 @ 1.21 and then £309 @ 1.11 in the final minute. This gave me a £40 profit for a couple of minutes work. At the end of this match I went on to the final few minutes of the Chelsea v Werder Bremen match and again backed the under 2.5 goal market for £40 @ 1.25 and £95 @ 1.11 all within the last three minutes of the end of the match. This netted me another £20, so I ended my football trading with my first loss for a long time of £183, leaving me with a still reasonable profit for the day of £266.

Comments

[jon]

HI,
great blog I've been reading the past week.

Can I ask do you use any software when betting in running on the horses?
I've tried betting in running but I'm just not quicker enough to do it.

What is your secret?

[Ray]

Hi Jon,
No I do not use any trading software and my secret can only be my IT set up which you can read about in the Nov archive or use this link: http://thesportstrader.lastminuteliving.com/the_sports_trader/2006/11/my_it_set_up.html
Also the more time you spend watching races the easier it becomes. Good Luck.
Ray

[Nathan]

Hi Ray
You should have stuck with the premiership, the stats were great for trading the Charlton v Blackburn match. Were you worried about the liquidity or wanting to trade a tv match ?

[Ray]

Hi Nathan,
Yes I only trade on matches that I can watch live.
Ray

[The Gambler]

Keep an eye on Dooneys Gate in the next at Fairyhouse. Each way selection. :-).

[Ray]

Cheers John

[Rob]

Ray,

What is the rationale behind backing the unders before kick off then laying in the first 20/30 minutes? Backing straight after a goal has been scored takes advantage of the market overreaction but what does this take advatage of? or is this intentionally more of a punt than a trade?

Rob

[Ray]

Hi Rob,
There are virtually no games where the back price of the unders is as high just after kick off as the price was before kick off, you must therefore be getting value by backing before kick off. Also I sometimes trade a bit in the 15 minutes before kick off to build in a little profit.
Ray