Wednesday 6th December 2006

A reasonable day today although my football let me down tonight after I broke one of my golden rules. I started the days racing with a couple of very small profitable trades and then I had a real stroke of genius, or was it luck, in the 13:10 at Kempton where quite close to the end of the race I backed Davids Mark for £20 @ 8.60 just as he drew level with the then leader, and Hayley Turner , I like her even more now, managed to keep him going and pull away to win by just over a length to give me a very good £152 profit. Next up was the 13:20 at Hexham where I had backed Double Default for £100 @ 2.30 when he looked like taking the lead but just couldn't overhaul the eventual winner Chief Dan George on which I managed to back for £22 @ 1.60 to limit my loss to £87. The next race I traded was the big race of the day at Fairyhouse. A competitive race with a short priced favourite, which sounds like a contradiction, where I traded around £1800 in total. I started by putting up backs on Asian Maze for £200 @ 1.65 and £570 @ 1.57 and layed all off @ 1.62 and 1.48, this secured me a decent profit if the favourite won, but I liked the way Brave Inca was travelling so I layed Asian Maze for another £40 @ 1.42 and then backed Brave Inca in the final 50 yds for £100 @ 1.50 to net me a profit on the race of £103. The next for me was the 14:00 at Leicester where I had a few very quick back and lays on Neysauteur and then backed and layed the eventual winner for £40 @ 2.00 and 1.50 and again left myself a profit of £40. I had a couple more small but profitable trades in the next two races before having to take a break to pick up the kids from school. On my return I traded in the 15:30 at Leicester where I backed the winner Westgrove Berry in a frantic few seconds as she came over the last hurdle for £117 @ 1.30 and £120 @ 1.11 to leave me another £48 profit. I had one more very small and profitable in the 16:10 at Kempton and that was the last I could manage today so I finished my racing day with a nice profit of £304.

It was Champions League night again and with 8 live matches it was a job to select one. I know all the talk was for a 0-0 or 1-1 draw between FC Porto and Arsenal but with odds on the unders down as low as I have ever seen for a match in this competition at around 1.37 I decided I would look for more value elsewhere. This is where for some strange reason I broke one of my golden rules, the one that states 'I shalt not enter into any financial involvement in a match where either Celtic or Rangers are competing'. As you know I am a Glasgow Rangers supporter and always find that my heart takes over from my brain when either of the two Glasgow giants compete. Anyway, I did get involved and only after the first goal was scored. I took the view that as there was nothing much to play for in this match that not many goals would be scored. How wrong can you be? So I backed the unders for £230 @ 2.30 to 2.35 and had just started laying off @ 2.23 for £25 when the second goal came. As usual I then went back in to back the unders for £100 @ an average price of 4.90. At this stage I had a liability of £300. I started to lay off in £25 lots at 3.60 down to 3.13 when the 3rd goal came and caught me with a £175 loss.

Just here I would like to try to explain my thinking behind going back in after the 2nd goal, as many people ask me why. After a second goal has been scored, and in particular when it is quite early in the match, as happened tonight, my main and first objective is to get out without a loss. Normally after this set of circumstances combine, you have most people taking the opposite view to me, where they think more goals are inevitable and therefore keep gazumping each other with higher prices. This normally means that, for probably 5 to 10 minutes, the back price on the unders is too high. The calculation I look at here is how much higher than fair value is the price and how long do I think it will be before another goal is likely to be scored. It is all just really a matter of time. In tonight's match I had two thoughts that distracted me from what I should have done. 1) I should not have been on this match as Celtic are playing and, 2) I have had a good day up until this match so I do not want to have to go on to my blog and report a loss. Yes I do blame my blog partially for this loss and the reason is that I have notice that everyday I am very mindful of the fact that later I will reveal to the world my result. This has the effect of making me a little bit more cautious than I would normally be.  What I should have done tonight after the second goal, was to go in an back the unders for at least as much and often up to twice as much as I already had wagered on the event, in this case £175. This would have meant that instead of having to get out at an average price of 3.15 to break even as I had tonight, my break even price would have been around  3.40. I had already layed down to as low as 3.13, I could therefore have been out all clear or even with a bit of profit. The time difference between the price being 3.15 and 3.40 was around 10 minutes. So what I am trying to say is that in football, although it can happen,  goals do not normally come all at once. This strategy has worked well for me and I will be sticking with it. What I find is that I will get caught two or three times and then have a good and fairly lengthy spell where good profits can be made. I do not advocate that everybody follows me with this strategy as clearly it can be costly if three quick goals are scored.

Anyway getting back to tonight's football match to partially offset the loss that I had in this match I had a couple of very quick trades on the correct score market where I backed 3-1 for £470 @ 1.66 and layed off at 1.49 and again backed for £361 @ 1.49 and layed off at 1.33. This left me with £92 if the scored remained 3-1. I then layed a further £80 @ 1.14 to give me £80 profit what ever the score. So I ended the match with a loss of £95 and finished my trading day with a profit of £210.

Comments

[mick]

Hi Ray
Thats a good blog for yesterday. I dont like the Chsampions league so I backed the unders on both the West Ham and Necastle games. Good profits on the former but the other game was a nightmare with so many goals. I waited too long to lay off and ended up chasing when I should have left things alone. So quite a loss on that game - interesting that you switch to the correct score as I could have done that at 2-2 as it was like that for about 25 minutes until Newcastle got a late winner. So thanks for explaining your approach - it may save me a lot in future.
Mick

[Ray]

Hi Mick,
Thanks for your encouraging comments. I always look for a way to lower any losses I make and often the correct score is the way I go. It can be risky as just one fluked touch of a ball and you can ended up with an even bigger loss.
Ray

[Nathan]

Hi Ray
Mistakes aren't a bad thing as long as we learn from them. I traded the West Ham v Wigan game as i thought this game had the best statistics for trading. I'd be interested to hear your viewpoint on not trading matches you can't watch live. Good Luck.
Nathan.

[Ray]

Hi Nathan,
We all make mistakes on trades but I tend to see them as inevitable when trading. It is impossible to trade without having some losses.
If you are having a straight bet on an outcome of any event then you can do so without the need to watch live, but if you are trading it is essential to watch the event to get a feel for how the event is shaping up. Also you will have noticed that when a corner is won or a free kick given in a dangerous area the odds move and it is at times like this that you can often get in or out of your trade at more favourable odds.
Ray

[Nathan]

Hi Ray
Interesting comments. Football is one of the sports i prefer not to watch when trading. I prefer to take a view to a point that i will trade out and find that watching the match can cloud this judgement. That's what i love about trading and betting, everyone has their own styles.
Nathan.

[mick]

Hi Ray
Thanks for your prompt reply. Just a quickie - I know you are a trader but this season with so few goals in the premiership would it be more profitable to simply select a game and then back unders and leave it? Would the 100% profit on winning games offset the losses on the losers? By the way who is the smart blonde bird - doesnt look like a female jockey to me! Makes the blog more pleasing on the eye though!
Mick

[Russ Wiseman]

Hi Ray

Good read as always. let me know if you have any thoughts about the weekend football as I have a couple of articles that I would like to reflect punters' views in. Look forward to meeting you soon.

Russ Wiseman
PR Director Betdaq

[Ray]

Hi Mick,
You are probably right, but statistics only tell you what has already happened and give you an insight into what might happen in the future, it is just possible that for the rest of the season more goals than average are scored to leave the stats showing this to be another normal year for goals scored.
The picture of a female is my favourite lady Jockey Hayley Turner out of her work clothes but unfortunately in her Sunday best clothes, if you see what I mean.

[Ray]

Hi Russ,
Thanks for your comments I will give it some thought and be in touch later.
Ray

[mick]

Hi Ray
Thanks for your reply - I agree statistics dont guarantee the next game. I must say you have nerves of steel putting more money on under 2.5 when the second goal has gone in. I tried it tonight but got out as quickly as possible!
Mick