Tuesday 23rd January 2007

It has been another slow day. I had a small, profitable trade in the 13:40 at Southwell. Then I had a minor disaster in the 13:50 at Thurles where I had laid Cleni Boy for £20 @ 4.00 at about half distance and hadn't reckoned on Ruby Walsh being beaten on Pontium. But he was and so early in the day I was down £60.

I then had three small, profitable trades before the 16:10 at Southwell where I laid Greenbelt for £20 @ 9.80 when well beaten to secure me a £20 profit. My next race was my last and it was in the 16:20 at Thurles. I backed Whyso Mayo for £804 @ 1.14 when just taking the final fence to give me a much needed profit of £111. This left me with a profit on my racing for the day of £75.

Now I need a good stern telling off. After all my statements about leaving football alone for a while, I decided to trade on the Chelsea v Wycombe match. I waited until after the kick off and then backed the under 2.5 goals for 144 @ 2.46 before laying off £94 @ 2.37 and a further £50 @ 2.22. So when the first goal was scored I had no liability and a potential profit of £20.  Approaching half time I backed the unders for £70 @ 2.67 and within seconds the second goal was scored. I then backed the unders for £16 @ 6.00 to leave me with a liability of £86 with a break-even point of 3.45. Things where going well and I laid off £10 @ 4.50. I then put up several lays at 3.25 down to 3.00 to clear my liability. There was a lack of liquidity tonight otherwise all these lays would have been long gone before the third goal, but that is the way things go and I had just lost £76. I then went on and backed the under 3.5 goals for £40 @ 1.29 with less than one minute on the clock and of course the Football gambling gods kicked me where it hurts again with a goal in injury time to leave me nursing a match loss of £116.

This has resulted in a loss on the day of £42.

I was reading the Betdaq Exchange Views Blog earlier today and came across the link to David Stewart's Horsegraphs Blog. It is a very interesting concept of mapping the chances of the main runners in a race, based on current form and time or speed ratings, in the form of a graph. As you will read on his blog David is the famous 'Computer Kid' as named by the Sun newspaper back in 1983 when he had an uncanny knack of picking winners with the use of a Sinclair ZX81 computer. He has also worked for the Racing Post, Sporting Life, Attheraces and The Sportsman. It is well worth a read and I will follow his progress with great interest.

Comments

[Rob]

Hi Ray
I'll be the first to tell you off, what were you thinking? betting against goals with a strong Chelsea line up against Wycombe :-O
Seriously I more or less avoided it, only staking 100 and built up about 20 green on the under 3.5, but the green was eaten by the injury time goal.........anyway only a small loss for you, which in the scheme of things won't hurt at all.

After the this weekends FA cup we can get back to a resonable standard of football..
GL Rob

[Andrew]

Hi Ray,
I thought of you as that fourth Chelsea goal went in - and wondered if you had been tempted... Not that I've got any room to talk, I placed poor bet after poor bet yesterday afternoon and justified them as 'research'. Admittedly the stakes were low - but if there are enough of them, the losses start to mount.
The problem at this time of year, is that there is little racing and it is of poor quality with virtually no market liquidity. It therefore becomes very difficult to resist chasing in order to make things happen... Roll on the weekend and Cheltenham (provided the weather doesn't intervene !).
One final thought - perhaps you should post your log at 8:00 this evening - that might stop you from dabbling in the Tottenham/Arsenal game !!
Andrew.

[Ray]

Hi Rob & Andrew,
I know I should just stick to no football at the moment. I think as you say with so little quality racing the temptation is to try and make money on something else. Anyway I have beaten myself up enough over last night. Good Luck to you both today.
Ray

[kelvin]

Is betdaq down for you today Ray?

[Ray]

Yes it is down and will be not be working before 5:00.:(