Monday 5th March 2007

The Sports Trader is becoming hooked on David Stewart's HorseGraphs.com site. He has managed to make a profit for the 5th day on the trot, this time with The Fisio winning the 3:30 at Lingfield.

It has been some time since we have lost so many race meetings due to the bad weather and there are inspections due for both of the National Hunt meetings tomorrow morning. My style of trading does not work as well on the all weather tracks so I have had a slow day with just 6 races traded and 1 football match and again with no losses.

I started with the 14:00 at Lingfield and managed to back Our Kes, when challenging for the lead, at the furlong marker for £445 @ 1.30. There was never a moments doubt once she had her head in front and this resulted in a profit of £134. I followed this up with 4 small winning trades.

My final race trade was in the 17:00 at Lingfield where I started with a lay of £77 @ 3.85 on the favourite, Saucy. I backed her for £10 @ 4.20 and 14 @ 4.10 to partially offset my liability and ended the race with a profit of £53.

I had finished my race trading with a profit of £203.

I had a good look at the stats for tonight's Championship match between Preston and Southampton. The conclusion on SoccerSTATS.com was for an under 2.5 goal game but I disagreed and therefore started trading quite cautiously. In fact I only backed the unders for £35 @ 1.85 pre kick off. I laid off £24 @ 1.63 and then backed again for £9 @ 1.68. I then laid off the rest of my liability @ 1.52. So when the first goal came I had no liability.

Things really got going for me after the market was reformed. I thought the price should have been around 1.70 at most, but there was plenty of money put up @ 1.80/1.81 so I backed the unders for £317 @ 1.81 and £389 @ 1.80. I immediately put up lays at 1.70 and got matched for £250. Then another chunk of money appeared @ 1.80 so I backed a further £137 @ 1.80. Soon after another £393 of my lay @ 1.70 was taken. I then lowered my lay price to 1.68 and got matched for £101 I laid the rest of my liability @ 1.58. 

The second goal came and again I had no liability. When the market had been reformed, the price appeared to be too high again and I backed the unders for £207 @ 3.17 and a further £72 @ 3.10. I quickly put up lays @ 2.78 and got matched for £168 before lowering my lay price to 2.63 where I was matched for £100. I then proceeded to green up with lays @ 2.57 down to 2.15 and by the 63rd minute of the game had a position where I made £102 whatever the result. I sat back and watched the rest of the match.

That was the best football trading I have done for a long while. Whilst I will be the first to admit that the goals all came at exactly the right time for me and that very generous odds were available. I am always happy to get such a good result trading on the under's, but when three or more goals have been scored.

My day has finished with a profit of £305.

Comments

[Gavin]

Hi again Ray, glad you've had a good day

well done

Gavin

[Ray]

Hi Gavin,
Thanks you have done well yourself. I sent a few visitors to you today.
Ray

[John]

Hi Ray,
I'm in now way doubting anything here but when you saw Our Kes challenging for the lead, SIS viewers were 3/4 seconds ahead, that's a huge difference. I know the majority don't have live feed but there is surely enough to make a difference to IR prices no?

[Brian]

Hi Ray

Well done on yesterdays trading. Any word from Russ on the ATR Xtra scenario yet?

Bri

[Ray]

Hi John,
SIS does make a difference and that is the reason that I will be getting it installed in the near future but I would think that most SIS users are Betfair players.
Ray

[Ray]

Hi Bti,
Still no word. I don't like keep pestering Russ for an answer but I know he will read our comments here today so would expect him to give me a call.
Ray

[Andrew Rigby]

Hi Ray,
Good to see you back making a consistent profit again...
One question that always crosses my mind, when I see the details of your trades, is how you judge that something is a value price (eg. 1.8 on the unders last night, after the first goal had been scored). Does this come purely from experience or do you have some kind of table of guidelines... I realise that taking the value is the key to successful gambling. I always try to take value prices, but I normally do this before an event begins and when you have much longer to consider all of the variables because the market is not so volatile. Making this assessment in the heat of battle - when things are changing at a frantic pace - is just not something I would feel confident of doing (especially if placing the size of bets that you do !).
Andrew.

[Ray]

Hi Andrew,
Thanks for your comments. The judgement of value is my greatest attribute and it does come with experience. I know others do keep past results and tables of things like this. I do not, I can only go by what my experience of the market tells me is good value. I don't always get this right but if I can get it right most of the time I will win. Good Luck.
Ray