Wednesday 14th March 2007

The Sports Trader has had a better second day of the Cheltenham Festival but still had few trades. In fact I only traded 7 horse races and 1 football match but had no losing trades.

My first trade was in the 13:40 at Wolverhampton where I backed Kabis Amigos for £36 @ 2.54 in the final furlong to result in a profit of £55. I followed this up with a small winning trade.

In the 14:00 @ Cheltenham I laid Aran Concerto for £3 @ 4.00 and backed Massini's Maguire for £20 @ 1.80 whilst just in the lead and well inside the final furlong, to result in a profit of £19.

My next trade was in the 14:35 at Cheltenham where I laid Aces Four, when making a mistake at the 3rd last fence, for £14 @ 23.00 and then a further £20 @ 40.00 to land another £34 profit.

In the 16:00, also at Cheltenham, I backed Burntoakboy for £150 @ 2.12 when contesting the lead at 3 hurdles out and laid off @ 1.50 to net me a profit of £93.

My best result was in the 17:20 at Cheltenham and I had been keeping a keen eye on Jamie Spencer's mount Enquiring Mind. He hadn't been travelling well throughout the race but with Jamie on board you never know just what will happen in the latter stages of a race. As it happened when Jamie did ask for an effort the horse just did not respond and I hit the lay button and got matched for £458 @ 10.00. I did lay off my liability very soon after with backs for £7 @ 25.00 and £5 @ 850 to result in a profit of £445. (Download screenshot1.ngp).

My last racing trade of the day was next and it was a small winning trade. I had therefore finished my race trading with a profit of £652 and still with no commission to pay thanks to one of Betdaq's outstanding commission offers.

I decided to watch the Manchester City v Chelsea match tonight. I did not take a position until after the first goal had been scored when I backed the under 2.5 goals for £193 @ 2.09. I laid off in stages with the following lays: £23 @ 1.98, £120 @ 1.92, £25 @ 1.82 and £28 @ 1.75. After half time I backed the unders again for £100 @ 1.67 and laid off £98 @ 1.61. This resulted in a profit on the match of £45.

I had finished my day with a profit of £697.

Comments

[humble]

Once again Ray and outstanding profit for the day,you spotted a great opportunity and took it and thats what this games all about.i had a much better day today as well.Its difficult telling one horse from the other when the fields are so big as in cheltenem but its good for practicing to read a race.

[Ray]

Hi Humble,
Yes I was well pleased with my day but I didn't try to make a bet happen I just sat and waited to pounce on a good trade. Good Luck.
Ray

[Darren Harris]

Hi Ray

I've been following your blog for a few days and have found it both informative and interesting.

I notice that you seem to back the Under 2.5 goals once a goal has been scored. What's the rational for this? Is it because the price drops quicker after this point or is it that you feel there's better value?

Thanks and good luck.

Darren

[Ray]

Hi Darren,

Thanks for your positve comments.

I used to trade most games before kick off and then lay off during the match and possibly take other positions after goals etc. By trading that way it meant that I was tied to my computer for 90 minutes at a time, and although I had a lot of good results what really got to me was the fact that sometimes I could spend 90 minutes trading and turn in a loss or small gain.

I now tend to trade in far shorter periods of time so I look for prices that are good value and these tend to come as soon as a goal has been scored as a lot of people over-react to the goal. I also trade in the final 5 minutes of matches where again you can sometimes get very good value.

As you will know most of my trading is on in-running horse races and here things happen very quickly. So my profits or losses come over perhaps a trade lasting for a second up to at most 3/4 minutes. If I do make a loss it happens quickly and I am not waiting for perhaps an hour before I know the final outcome.

Good Luck.
Ray

[Paul]

Nice one Ray,
I was trying my best to be more patient yesterday as well. I did better but was still a bit panicky at times and did my best to throw it all away on the last at Wolvs.
Gee gees +176 Footie +83
Good luck today
Paul (in Lux)

[Ray]

Hi Paul,

Thanks, you still had a decent day. Take it easy and pounce at the right moment. This game is all about waiting for the right opportunity, and they always come.
Good Luck.
Ray

[Jen]

Ray,
Are you suffering from processing delays in running? It took me ages to find out if a couple of bets were on or not yesterday.

I wondered if this is why liquidity is so poor. The number of bets on your blog for the first two days doesn't say much for the site at such a big meeting.

[Ray]

Hi Jen,

No, I have had no delays in processing over this week.

Liquidity has been breaking records all week with over £6 million matched on the first race of the Festival.

I normally find that I have fewer trades in the big races and I think that is just because it tends to be more competitive due to the amount of people on the site. I just look for good value trades.

Ray

[Jen]

The processing delay is intermittent not every bet. Perhaps it is down to your higher amount of people going for the same bet.

[Ray]

Hi Jen,

It is possible if a lot of bets are placed at the same time that a delay could happen but as you see, I have had very few in the big races, and even then they tend to be in-running when fewer bets are being placed.
Good Luck today Jen.

Ray

[Jen]

I have only suffered a processing delay in running

[traderpete]

It's good to see there are still plenty of people out there who don't beleive you can make a living at this game.All the better for us lot then.I refer to people who question what is said on these blogs.What would be the point of lying I ask myself.
No shortage of morons on the betfair forum.Mind you--without them it would be a lot harder to take money on the exchanges wouldn't it.

[Ray]

Hi Traderpete,

It's a natural human reaction for people to dis-believe others if they can not do something themselves. I just do not like being called a liar by these people.
There are a few very successfull traders on Betfair that do not believe you can do what I do on Betdaq. I think I have just developed my way of trading to the markets that I trade in, which is what any successfull trader must do to survive.

Ray