The Sports Trader

Thursday 30th November 2006

I have finished November with another good day with only the first of my 15 trades on the day losing. My losing trade was in the 12:45 at Thurles where I backed Rights of Man @ 3.20 and 2.82 and proceeded to lay off @ 2.00 but only managed to lay a part of it before the horse dropped away leaving me with a loss of £15. In the next, the 12:50 at Market Rasen  I layed Player in the last furlong for £151 @ 1.50 just as he was having to be ridden hard to keep on and was headed by Olivair in the last 100 yds to give me a £151 profit. Next was the 13:00 at Leicester where I backed Paradi for £50 @ 1.61 just as he stumbled going over the last fence giving me another £30 profit. In the 13:15 at Thurles I had backed Romek for £63 @ 2.51 in the final two furlongs but soon realised this horse was not going to win. I then managed to back Back In Front for £378 @ 1.26 in the run in to leave me with a profit of £33. I had small profitable trades in the next 7 or 8 races and then came the 15:45 at Thurles where I put up a back for £50 @ 2.80 on the favourite, The Colt King, in the last quarter mile when he was just starting to get to the front runners and not expecting the bet to be taken, however someone must have hit the wrong button as £39 of it was taken in the last 100yds when the horse was definitely going to win, so this netted me another £70. So I finished the racing today with a profit of £325 and paid no commission due to the 0% offer that Betdaq is promoting at the moment.

I had a go on the under 2.5 goal market in the Frankfurt v Newcastle match. I backed the unders for £300 @ 1.72 before kick off and then, as usual for me, I proceeded to lay off @ 1.60 down to 1.19. In the last 20 minutes of this match with no goals yet scored the price looked a bit on the high side to me so I backed a further £1000 @ 1.10 and again started to lay off from 1.08 down to 1.04. In total I managed a £120 profit on this match. The final result for the day was a good profit of £445.

I have had plenty of comments about my trading on the under 2.5 goal market. I believe this is the easiest market to trade in sports trading and ideal for new traders to get started in. There are plenty of occasions where I have made money on this market even if 3 or more goals are scored. That is the reason I tend to trade out quite early on in the match. What can catch you out is if there are 3 goals scored, close together and quite early on in the match.

Wednesday 29th November 2006

Well, where do I start - I had one of those days where I started very well then made a  basic mistake that cost me £300, followed that up with a bad trade that cost me another £150 but ended up in profit. In footballing terms if you play bad and still win they say it's the sign of a Champion, I hope they are right.

My first trade was in the 12:10 at Catterick where I backed Joan's Girl for £150 @ 2.21 in the run in where she appeared to be trying to run out to the left but just went over to the rail and ran on well to net me an early profit of £181. My next decent gain was in the 13:05 at Plumpton where I backed Marcel @ 2.00,2.21 and 2.50 and layed all off @ 1.20 to net a trading profit of £32. In the 14:00 at Ayr, my local track, I backed Wild Cane Ridge for £100 @ 1.72 to net a further £72. Now for my mistake in the 14:20 at Catterick I had backed Flake for £40 @ 2.25 and was worried about Moorlaw's effort so I had a back covered ready to hit the button for £284 @ 1.30, then I saw more money for the taking on Flake so I went and hit the back button for Flake and got the bet but, I hadn't cancelled my back on Moorlaw so I just cost myself £278 on the race. That hurts a lot more than a genuine trading loss but is one of the mistakes that is very easy to do especially  in the heat of the moment when you really have to keep your wits about you. In the very next race at Ayr I backed Percussionist for £200 @ 1.90 whilst Harmony Brig seemed to be under a lot of pressure to keep itself in the race but some how Tony Dobbin managed to get the horse to make a renewed effort to come through and win,. I did manage to back Harmony Brig between 1.30 and 1.80 to partially offset my loss and I ended with a loss of £154. In the 14:40 at Plumpton I backed Pro Dancer for £70 @ 4.24 and layed it back for £95 @ 3.50 to net a profit of £25. I traded 18 races in total and ended with a loss £120.

There where 5 premiership matches to choose from but after looking at the odds on offer and the stats for these games I went for the Bolton V Chelsea match. I concluded that this would be a low scoring game and backed the under 2.5 goals before kick off for £350 @ 1.64. I traded slightly differently in this match to my normal style and held out to just before half time before laying off where I layed £160 @ 1.22 to 1.35. Then in the fourth! minute, of the three minutes added on to the 45, Chelsea scored. During half time I put up £1000 to back the under 2.5 goals @ 1.58 and had £690 of it taken before the start of the second half. Within ten minutes I started laying off my liability in £100 chunks from 1.52 down to 1.35 and then in £50 amounts to start greening up between 1.25 and 1.02 to leave myself a profit on the match of £260. Last season Chelsea were a banker for under 2.5 goals, that is not the case this year but when they are playing a team next to them in the league and are worried about the gap at the top of the league opening up they do play a very tight game where they give few chances to the opposition but also do not create that many chances. So I ended the day with a respectable £140 profit and consider myself pretty fortunate.

Tuesday 28th November 2006

A decent day today although my earlier trading on the horse racing did leave a lot to be desired. I started with a losing trade by backing One Way Ticket in the 12:20 at Lingfield for £36 in the last 100yds only to see the favourite nip through to win. My next calamity was in the 13:10 at Hereford where I backed the favourite, William Butler for £100 @ 1.70 around half distance with the intention of laying off over the next few furlongs, however he hit the 8th fence and never really looked like winning after that so that was the end of my money. In the 13:40 at Hereford I was fortunate to get £253 matched @ 2.00 on City of Manchester just as he overhauled the favourite, Papillon de Lena for the second time in the final two furlongs to leave me up on the day at this stage. Again at Hereford in the 14:10 I backed Fair Question @ 1.40, 1.25 and 1.12 and layed it all off at 1.05 to leave me with a successful small trade with a profit of £17. I missed the next few races whilst picking all the kids up from school etc. The only other race I managed to trade was the 3:30 at Southwell where I backed Night Prospector for £100 @ 1.30 in the final furlong and never saw the need to lay off to net me £30.

The football match tonight was the bottom of the English Premiership league clash between Watford and Sheffield United. This looked like a good trading opportunity on the under 2.5 goals market as 66% of Watford's home matches and 85% of Sheffield's away matches have been under 2.5 goals, according to SoccerSTATS.com. So I backed the unders before the kick off for £200 @ 1.63. I then waited to see how the match developed and started laying off @ 1.35 down to 1.14 in £50 chunks. I had layed all my liability by half time with a potential profit of £70. With twenty minutes of the match left I backed the unders for £334 @ 1.08 and then layed this off  @ 1.04 to 1.02, these trades combined left me with a profit of £93 on the match and left me with a profit on the day of £256.

Monday 27th November 2006

I have had a very slow but productive day. My Au Pair is on holiday for a few days as it is her 21st Birthday so I had to stop the racing at 2:45 to go and pick the kids up from school and nursery, by the time I got back the racing was just about over for the day. My first trade was in the 13:20 at Wolverhampton where I backed Blue Hedges for £100 @ 1.20 in the last furlong for a £20 profit. My next trade was in the 13:50 at Wolverhampton And here I backed Tartartufata for £67 @ 1.21 in the final 50 yards as she just got the better of Shade Cozy to leave me with a £14 profit. I had just one other small trade to make me £2 in the 14:00 at Folkestone and that was it for the racing.

So with very little profit from the racing I took a long look at the form and Stats for the football match between Burton Albion and Exeter. Apart from the Nationwide League leaders, Oxford United, these two teams have the best defencive record in the league and have a record of low scoring games against each other. I therefore decided to trade quite aggressively on this one. I missed the kickoff which meant that the 1.70+ that was on offer had now gone and I got on the under 2.5 goals @ 1.65 for £300 then a further £40 @ 1.60. I started laying off @ 1.50 and had layed off about £200 when the goal was scored in the 29th minute. This was my chance to get some value and as luck would have it somebody put up a lay of the unders @ 2.07 immediately after the goal for £822 so I took it all. I would have put the true odds at this point of around 1.90 so in my mind I had got some real value and so it proved as the price quickly dropped into the 1.80's where I started to lay off in £50 chunks all the way down to 1.35. By the 56th minute of the game I now had a position of £300 profit on the unders and £150 profit on the overs. I then waited until the 80th minute and layed another £137 to leave me with £287 whatever the result. A really good trade this one and it left me with a profit of £325 on the day when I have only traded in 4 events.

Sunday 26th November 2006

I had a  good day to round off another profitable week. I started in the 12:30 at Newbury where I backed Mick Fitzgerald's mount, Mountain Approach, soon after his mistake 3 fences out and just as he challenged for the lead @ 2.00 for £150. I did consider laying off but with Mick looking pretty confident I just sat on the bet and made £150. In the 13:00 at Newbury I backed Hot 'n' Holly for £42 @ 2.00 as he was duelling with Irish Raptor and again I did not lay off but must admit I thought I had lost this wager on more than one occasion. My next real gain was in the 14:50 at Fontwell where I backed English Jim @ 4.00 for £40 then again for £50 @ 3.00, this time I did lay all off @ prices between 2.00 and 3.20 to net me a profit of £76. I missed a lot of today's racing due to having to take my daughter to her friends Birthday party at 2:00 and then again to pick her up at 4:00. So I only traded 6 races and won on all of them. This also meant that I missed the start of the Man. Utd V Chelsea match.

I waited for the first goal to go in on the match to get what I perceive as a value price on the under 2.5 goal market. I got on the unders @ 1.76 for £55 and layed off @ 1.51 within 7 or 8 mins. I then went back in after the equalising goal @ 1.55 for £66 and @ 1.53 for £170 and again layed all off within a few minutes again @ 1.30 to 1.44 to net me £25. Not a bad result as I was making the evening meal at the same time hence my in and out approach to this match. I then settled down to the Athletic Bilbao V Sevilla match and decided to wait a while as this was predicted to be an over 2.5 goal match, so I waited and assessed the way the match was going. I got in after the first goal @ 2.70 for £184 and had just put up a lay when the second very early goal went in. I then backed unders again @ 6.70 to 7.25 for £90 which averaged my price to around 3.90. I then had a fairly anxious wait for the price to fall as this was a very open game where it looked like a goal could come at anytime and, yes, I probably should not have entered this market. However I persevered and started to lay off @ 4.45 in small amounts all the way down to 2.11 where I had now got to £40 profit on overs and £140 profit on unders when the 3rd goal came and left me with a £40 profit. I also had a small margin win on Sevilla to win the match.  So I finished the day with no losing trades and a profit of £360 which gives me a weeks total of +£1180.

Saturday 25th November 2006

I'm a little late reporting tonight as I have had my first night out since the separation from my wife nearly eight weeks ago. My best mate Graeme form Aberdeen came to see me and we have been out for a few beers, we have also just been talking to another good pal Hamish via skype who happens to be in Australia at the moment. It's 7:00 in the morning for him and he is playing online poker. Anyway back to todays effort. I traded in 19 races today and my first decent gain was in the 12:45 at Towcester where I backed Principe Azzurro around half distance @ 3.55 for £54 then within a furlong had layed off @ 2.75, I then went in and backed again @ 1.92 and 1.35, I also had a small covering bet on Flintoff, to leave a profit of £111 on the race. In the 13:05 at Newbury I managed to trade a profit of £27 by backing Opera Mundi @ 2.25 and laying off @ 1.80. My next was the 13:35 at Newbury where, all in the last furlong, I backed Saintsare for £200 @ 1.50 and layed off instantly @ 1.24 to net a profit of £52. I had a few other small trades before the 14:50 at Towcester where I had my biggest mistake of the day where I managed to back Levallois for £133 @ 1.65 when looking to be in control only to be passed in the final stages before I could lay off. In the 15:00 at Newcastle I backed Neptune Collonges for £121 @ 1.50 in the final two furlongs and didn't see the need to lay off as the horse was well in control of the race. Next in the 15:15 at Newbury where I backed Gallant Approach for £13 @ 3.65 and again for £377 @ 1.50, with a small lay to net me £199. I then went on to the next at Newbury the 15:45 where I backed Alfsoun for £50 @ 2.00 about 2 furlongs out to give me a profit of £50.

I finished the day early because of my visitor so none of the Kempton or Wolverhampton races and no football tonight either. The one very significant thing that happened today was that in the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup Betadaq matched £2.80M against Betfair at just £1.93M so liquidity is going very well at Betdaq. As I said earlier my day finished early but I still managed a very respectable £415 profit.

Friday 24th November 2006

Back to winning ways today. My first significant trade was in the 13:10 at Wolverhampton where I backed Aureate @ 1.10 for £300 in the final furlong with him pulling away from the field after leading all the way round. My next was at Wolverhampton again, in the 13:45, where I backed Alittlebitleft @ 1.50 for £200 about two furlongs out with another front running display. Next was the 14:30 at Mussleburgh where I layed Kings Quay for £40 @ 1.87 about two furlongs out when being ridden, making no impression. I will not bore you with them but I did trade in another dozen races with small profits and losses. Again I missed most of the Kempton meeting due to my domestic duties with the kids so I ended the racing day with a profit of £168.

Tonight's football match, between Wolverhampton and Sunderland, looked a sure fire under 2.5 goal match with the last three meetings between these sides ending 1 - 1. So I backed the unders for £1000 before the kick off @ 1.63 - 1.66. You probably noticed the unusual price movements pre match where for most of the early evening the price was pretty static at around 1.67 - 1.70 and then with five minutes before kick off the price started to fall very fast to 1.57. That's the reason I went in heavier than normal. Soon after kick off the price was down to 1.52 and I started to lay off my liability. I was all out within 10 minutes with a £100+ potential gain. I did go back in after both goals to smaller amounts and ended up about 10 minutes before the end of the match with an all green £161 profit no matter the final score. I nearly always green up within the last 10 - 15 minutes of a match especially if, like tonight, you can go from having a £170 profit on unders and no profit or loss on overs, to £161 both sides no matter what happens. its a tenner well spent in my eyes. There is nothing worse than trading away for 90 mins to see it all lost in the last few minutes. So the final result today was a decent £330 profit.

Thursday 23rd November 2006

I have to report a loss today and it all came from the first race @ Thurles where I backed Pom Flyer @ 4.10 for £1660 and started laying off @ 3.50 for £738, only to see the horse start to weaken. If it had stayed on running well for another furlong I would have been out with a healthy profit, but it didn't so I took a loss of £920. This was an unusually high amount for me to bet on a horse but it looked right at the time and surprisingly enough I didn't beat myself up too much as I was so close to coming out with a thousand pound margin. In the next @ Taunton I did quite a few trades on Park Lane Princess and came out with a £101 profit, I could have made more but was ultra cautious after my misdemeanour in the previous race. Later in the 14:55 @ Taunton I layed Cociembe around half distance to the tune of £100 and backed General O'Keeffe in the final furlong for £993 @ 1.10 to net me £190. I then went on to back Singh on Song in the 15:45 @ Thurles to net a further £48.

I had to take one of my daughters to her school disco in the early evening so I missed most of Wolverhampton and by the time I got back to the house all the football matches had started so I looked out for opportunities to claw back a few more pounds. I was tempted to lay the unders in the Feyenoord V Blackburn to cover the rest of my loss for the day but in the end didn't have the bottle so I just traded as normal and backed the unders at between 1.39 and 1.75. I layed off gradually around the 1.32 to 1.36 level to net me £63. I also had the Newcastle V Celta Vigo match on my other screen and again backed the unders after the second goal went in. I had about 20 trades on this match as when 2 goals have been scored you are only 1 goal away form a potential heavy loss so I tend to go in and out very quickly. The upside of trading after the second goal is that the odds are much higher and will therefore fall much faster allowing for this quick in and out type of trade. I eventually greened up with £130 on both sides and was well pleased I had as that 3rd goal did come in the 86th minute.

I am having a little trade on the Premier League snooker match between Ronnie O'Sullivan and Graeme Dott and what ever happens will make £10, so my loss for the day is still a fairly large -£640, so I am human after all. Why is it that you always get beat on the biggest stakes that you place? I did not get into the cricket today but will probably watch the highlights later.

Wednesday 22nd November 2006

I have had a lot better day today with my first significant success in the 12:55 @ Wetherby where I backed The Reverend for £200 @ 2.10 and layed back at odds of between 1.70 and 1.90 to leave a profit of £72. In the 13:15 @ Lingfield I backed Back Among Friends for £50 @ 3.3 when it was 15 lengths in front, intending to lay back at lower odds, but got caught and could only lay off £15 to leave a loss of £35. Then came my best race the 13:50 @ Lingfield where A P Mc Coy was at his best on Coach Lane and I managed to back it @ 1.50 for £1000 in the last two furlongs and layed it all back @ 1.10 in the run in to leave a profit of £407 on the race - nice one. My senses then left me as I lost £200 in the next three races simply by backing horses that looked in control only to see them lack stamina in the final stages. I couldn't play in the later races @ Kempton due to having to make a meal for the kids.

It was Champions League night again and I decided to watch the Chelsea match. I backed the unders for £300 @ 1.68 to 1.70 before kick off and then proceeded to lay off gradually through the game. I was almost all out when Werder Bremen scored. I had a few phone calls to make so I missed 15 mins of the game  but then I backed the unders for another £300 @ 1.50 and layed off around 1.20 to 1.25. This left me a profit of £121 on the match. So the day ended with a total profit of £358 another pleasing result.

One of the biggest sporting events of the year starts through the night with England defending the ashes, it's a pity about the timing but I will catch the end of the days play each morning. I am obviously hoping for a successful series by England but do not rate our chances too high. Don't forget that you can trade the ashes at just 1% commission with Betdaq.

Tuesday 21st November 2006

I have had a really bad day today. Not because of my trading but I had a long meeting with the Tax man who reckons I owe a lot of tax from a previous job I had. I am convinced I was an employee and that my employer had paid the tax, however they think different, so if there are any tax experts out there - help!

Because of the above situation I missed all racing pre the 13:45 @ Sedgefield where I traded a huge 10p profit. My best race was the 14:05 @ Kempton where I backed Flake at 1.50 and 1.20 and then layed off @ 1.03 to net a £38 profit. I then made a tenner on the 16:50 @ Wolverhampton by laying Lilac Star @1.78. So that was it for the horses, just under £50.

I took a look at the Champions league matches and tried to decide which would be under 2.5 goals. It's not easy at this stage where the league is taking shape and most teams are going all out for a win as opposed to the earlier games where the best result is normally not to lose. My pick would have been the Celtic V Man. Utd game but I have a rule where I never get involved in Celtic or Rangers matches as my heart comes into play because I am a Rangers supporter. I have a better reason than most to support Rangers as I am an English man that moved to Scotland in 1976 and stayed here ever since, and in the Early 1980's I moved to Glasgow where I still live. My first three kids where all born here and I started taking them to football matches and I chose Rangers as It was almost the England team at that time.  I think 7 of them where Gers. Anyway back to the match, in the end I decided to wait until a goal was scored and then get in and out fairly quickly. So Hamburg scored in the 4th minute and I backed the unders @ 4.60 to 4.85 for £135 and layed it all off by half time @ between 2.2 and 3.65. I got back in just after Arsenal equalised @ 4.32 for £175 and layed off again to leave me with a position of £180 on the unders and £100 on the overs. My intention was to gradually even up both sides but  Eboue's goal meant that I had to be satisfied with the £100 profit. So I finished the day with a £150 profit which is a fair result considering the day I've had and the frame of mind I was in.